Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Blanford, Simon; Crane, Robert G.; Mann, Michael; Ning, Liang; Schreiber, Kathleen V.; Thomas, Matthew B.

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1172-6

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…S2 610) and do not require long-term climate change to be relevant, yet few studies consider such effects. We also demonstrate important differences between vector species in thermal sensitivity of life history traits and overall vector competence, cautioning against the use of mixed-species data and extrapolation across vector-parasite pairings, which is a common feature of many studies exploring environmental influences on transmission27928.…”

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confidence: 85%

“…This non-linearity means that small changes in environmental temperature can lead to large changes in transmission risk. Recent evidence suggests that malaria incidence is increasing in cooler regions of the world due to global warming345678. However, the effects of environmental change on malaria transmission are potentially complex5679, and the implications for malaria risk in optimum transmission settings remain poorly defined.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Recent evidence suggests that malaria incidence is increasing in cooler regions of the world due to global warming 3 4 5 6 7 8 . However, the effects of environmental change on malaria transmission are potentially complex 5 6 7 9 , and the implications for malaria risk in optimum transmission settings remain poorly defined. Additionally, irrespective of climate change, mosquitoes are exposed to a range of microclimates due to variation in local habitat features, which affect mean ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) 10 11 .…”

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confidence: 99%

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Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

Murdock

Sternberg

Thomas

2016

Sci Rep

113

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Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51–89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings.

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Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

Murdock

Sternberg

Thomas

2016

Sci Rep

113

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“…have done regional projections of vector-borne disease transmission. To examine the consequences of using downscaled versus global climate models on predictions of future malarial incidence, Paaijmans et al compared results from raw global circulation models to downscaled models and found that the raw models may underestimate transmission of P. falciparum by as much as threefold in hot and 12-fold in cold extremes [20].…”

Section: All Over the Map?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and the Crystal Ball of Vector-Borne Disease Forecasts

Bernstein

2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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For decades, researchers have endeavored to better predict the incidence of vector-borne disease on a planet with a changing climate. Methods, though imperfect, have advanced considerably and led to the tantalizing prospect of forecasting the emergence of diseases such as malaria and dengue in new locations. This paper presents some of these recent advances and considers them in the context of their prospective aim: to prevent harm from vector-borne disease.Keywords Climate change . Vector-borne disease . Malaria . Dengue . Daily temperature range . Anopheles . Aedes . El Niño southern oscillation At various points in our species history, microbes have brought us to extinction's door, and despite major progress in combatting infectious diseases in recent decades, around 200 million people will fall sick with malaria, and nearly twice as many with dengue fever, this year. Millions more will contract other vector-borne diseases. No wonder, then, that much concern followed from initial suspicions [e.g., 1] and early research suggesting that climate change might foment conditions favorable to vector-borne disease transmission [e.g., 2, 3].Yet, a look into the most current and scientifically informed crystal ball to discern the future of human vector-borne disease would at best yi\eld hazy results, even if much less hazy than in the past, owing to research over the past several decades that has deepened understanding about vectors, pathogens, and climate change itself. This paper explores recent advances in vector-borne disease modeling relevant to climate change and considers future directions for modeling vector-borne disease emergence as climate change unfolds. Better Knowledge of Bugs and Better Models of DiseaseModels of future distributions of vector-borne disease endeavor to predict where and, often, when infections may occur. Over the past 20 years, these models have been honed based upon new knowledge of the many components that determine disease spread; whether this has come with increased accuracy remains unclear. However, many developments have given cause for optimism that disease incidence model accuracy is improving.Consider models of malaria transmission and handling of temperature. Such models for a long time largely ignored temperature effects on mosquito development, this despite the knowledge that climate change was pushing temperatures upward and that adult mosquito populations depend strongly on juvenile (i.e., egg, larva, and pupa stage) survival. Anopheles gambiae larvae, for example, have shown that warmer aquatic larval temperature is associated with higher adult mortality [4]. Based upon this and other data obtained in a lab, Beck-Johnson et al. developed a malaria transmission model that incorporates all stages of the mosquito life cycle. Their model predicted peak abundance of infective mosquitoes at lower temperatures as compared to temperature-independent models, demonstrating the importance of factoring in temperature effects on mosquito development. The authors further compar...

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“…Most statistical and mechanistic models used to predict mosquito borne disease transmission incorporate climate drivers of disease transmission by utilizing environmental data collected from general circulation weather models 1,29–32 , down-scaled weather data 33 , outdoor weather stations 34,35 , or remotely sensed land surface temperature data 36–38 . While working with these data is methodologically tractable, mosquitoes do not experience environmental variation at such coarse scales 39,40 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape changes the capacity ofAedes albopictusto vector arbovirus

Murdock¹,

Evans²,

McClanahan

et al. 2016

Preprint

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Most statistical and mechanistic models used to predict mosquito borne disease transmission incorporate climate drivers of disease transmission by utilizing environmental data collected at scales that are potentially coarser than what mosquito vectors actually experience. Temperature and relative humidity can vary greatly between indoor and outdoor environments, and can be influenced strongly by variation in landscape features. In the Aedes albopictus system, we conducted a proof-of-concept study in the vicinity of the University of Georgia to explore the effects of fine-scale microclimate variation on mosquito life history and vectorial capacity (VC). We placed Ae. albopictus larvae in artificial pots distributed across three replicate sites within three different land uses – urban, suburban, and rural, which were characterized by high, intermediate, and low proportions of impervious surfaces. Data loggers were placed into each larval environment and in nearby vegetation to record daily variation in water and ambient temperature and relative humidity. The number of adults emerging from each pot and their body size and sex were recorded daily. We found mosquito microclimate to significantly vary across the season as well as with land use. Urban sites were in general warmer and less humid than suburban and rural sites, translating into decreased larval survival, smaller body sizes, and lower per capita growth rates of mosquitoes on urban sites. Dengue transmission potential was predicted to be higher in the summer than the fall. Additionally, the effects of land use on dengue transmission potential varied by season. Warm summers resulted in a higher predicted VC on the cooler, rural sites, while warmer, urban sites had a higher predicted VC during the cooler fall season.

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Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

Cited by 15 publications

References 35 publications

Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

Climate Change and the Crystal Ball of Vector-Borne Disease Forecasts

Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape changes the capacity ofAedes albopictusto vector arbovirus

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