Dramatic decrease in streamflow from the headwater source in the central route of China's water diversion project: Climatic variation or human influence?

Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming; Luo, Yuzhou; Zhang, Minghua; Xia, Jun

doi:10.1029/2011jd016879

Cited by 57 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…It has been considered an effective indicator of runoff sensitivity to the other variables (such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) [17,21,44]. The elasticity of runoff to potential impact factors can be expressed by the following equation:…”

Section: Attribution Analysis Of Runoff Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Reduced Runoff Due to Anthropogenic Intervention in the Loess Plateau, China

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:To maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources and reduce soil erosion in the Loess Plateau, the Chinese government has adopted a number of environmental restoration strategies since 1999, including the Grain for Green Project (GFGP) and the Natural Forest Conservation Program; these large projects greatly alter the regional water cycle. Detecting runoff changes and quantitatively assessing the contribution of anthropogenic activities (including land use/cover change (LUCC) and water diversion) and climate change (including potential evaporation and precipitation) are imperative for implementing sustainable management strategies. Using observed records from 15 hydrological stations and 85 national meteorological stations from 1980 to 2013, the decomposition method, based on the Budyko hypothesis, is used to quantify the impact of climate variation and anthropogenic interference on annual runoff for the 12 catchments in the Loess Plateau. The results show the following: (1) the observed annual runoff exhibited a negative trend in all 12 catchments (significant in eight catchments) with a range of −1.94 to −0.16 mm·year −1 and exhibited a substantial difference before and after 1999; (2) the sensitivity of runoff to vegetation change, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration increased in most catchments after 1999, indicating that great challenges and uncertainties might be introduced to regional water resource availability; and (3) the anthropogenic interference, particularly LUCC caused by forest strategies, has become the main contribution to runoff change. We suggest that more attention should be given to water resource availability and that the hydrologic consequences of revegetation should be taken into account in future management.

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Section: Attribution Analysis Of Runoff Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Reduced Runoff Due to Anthropogenic Intervention in the Loess Plateau, China

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2016

Water

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“…Of these methods, climate elasticity has been widely used in different regions of the world [11,[19][20][21]. To estimate the impact of climatic variation on streamflow, the climate elasticity method considers precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as representative indicators.…”

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Sensitivity Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Climate Elasticity in the Luan River Basin, China

Wang¹,

He²

2017

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Natural streamflow is the main source of surface water and plays an important role in agricultural irrigation, socioeconomic development, and local eco-environmental conservation at the basin level. The Luan River basin is a sub-basin of the Hai River in northern China. This basin is an important economic centre of China and has a key role in the sustainable development of the economy and ecology. To alleviate water shortages in Tianjin and Tangshan, the Panjiakou and Daheiting Reservoir system, which is the primary water source for these two cities, was constructed in the 1980s to supply water to 6.5 million Pol. J. Environ. Stud. Vol. 26, No. 2 (2017), 837-845 Original Research AbstractStreamflow depends directly on climate conditions (e.g., precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, or E p ), which affect water balance at the basin scale. The present study was conducted to investigate the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Luan River basin, China. To assess the impact of climatic variation on streamflow, the temporal trends of streamflow were explored using the Mann-Kendall method and the sensitivities of streamflow to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the aridity index were evaluated with the modified method of climate elasticity. The results showed that the average coefficients of sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were 3.23 and -2.23, respectively, indicating that a 10% increase in precipitation or potential evapotranspiration would lead to a 32.3% increase or a 22.3% decrease in streamflow, respectively. Additionally, the average coefficient of sensitivity of streamflow to the aridity index was -2.53, which indicated that streamflow would decrease by 25.3% with a 10% increase in the aridity index. The average coefficients of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variation appeared to have an inverse relationship with the runoff coefficient, showing that the lower the streamflow of the basin became, the more sensitive the streamflow would be with respect to climatic variation.

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“…Among these methods, the climate elasticity method [20][21] was widely used in different regions of the world [22][23][24][25]. The climate elasticity method considers precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as the representative indicators to estimate the impacts of climatic variation on streamflow.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%