Drilling Deeper: A Systematic, Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil–Conflict Link

Basedau, Matthias; Mähler, Annegret; Shabafrouz, Miriam

doi:10.1080/00220388.2013.849338

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Second, local communities may protest in order to make their demands for rent redistribution heard. This “greed” argument is particularly prevalent in the literature on violent conflict, where militant groups mobilize strategically to obtain access to resource revenues (for example, Basedau et al, 2014; Collier and Hoeffler, 2004), but it may also be translated to low-level contentious action. Local interest groups consider the government as a “honey pot” of rents (Di John, 2007; Karl, 2007) and mobilize strategically to pressure politicians into spending higher shares of the resource revenues in their region or on their interests.…”

Section: Resource Wealth and Local Contentious Actionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Politics and the Resource Curse: Natural Resources, Interest Heterogeneity and Protest in Bolivia

Flesken¹,

Kuhn

2018

Can J Pol Sci

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Studies of public contentious action in response to mineral resource extraction have rarely employed quantitative methods. In a highly disaggregated statistical analysis we examine local protest dynamics in Bolivia and argue for a political conditioning of the so-called resource curse. We find that mineral gas resources spark disputes over both extraction and rent redistribution at the local level, and that this relationship is especially pronounced where the population has highly heterogenous political values and interests. In contrast, where the population is relatively united in their political views, significantly fewer protests occur.

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Section: Resource Wealth and Local Contentious Actionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Politics and the Resource Curse: Natural Resources, Interest Heterogeneity and Protest in Bolivia

Flesken¹,

Kuhn

2018

Can J Pol Sci

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“…We focus on rebel-centered rather than state-centered explanations. 7 The opportunity mechanism connects resource exploitation to conflict by arguing that easily lootable resources provide the financial means for insurgency or help rebels extort resources (Basedau, Mähler & Shabafrouz, 2014). Yet empirical evidence remains mixed, data-dependent, and theoretically overdetermined.…”

Section: Resources Lootability and The Risk Of Insurgencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Financing rebellion

Daxecker

Prins

2017

Journal of Peace Research

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A prominent explanation of the resource–conflict relationship suggests that natural resources finance rebellion by permitting rebel leaders the opportunity to purchase weapons, fighters, and local support. The bunkering of oil in the Niger Delta by quasi-criminal syndicates is an example of how the black-market selling of stolen oil may help finance anti-state groups. More systematic assessments have also shown that the risk and duration of conflict increases in the proximity of oil and diamond deposits. Yet despite the emphasis on rebel resource extraction in these arguments, empirical assessments rely almost exclusively on latent resource availability rather than actual resource extraction. Focusing on maritime piracy, this article argues that piracy is a funding strategy neglected in current research. Anecdotal evidence connects piracy in the Greater Gulf of Aden to arms trafficking, the drug trade, and human slavery. The revenue from attacks may find its way to Al-Shabaab. In Nigeria, increasing attacks against oil transports may signal an effort by insurgents to use the profits from piracy as an additional revenue stream to fund their campaign against the Nigerian government. The article hypothesizes that piracy incidents, that is, actual acts of looting, increase the intensity of civil conflict. Using inferential statistics and predictive assessments, our evidence from conflicts in coastal African and Southeast Asian states from 1993 to 2010 shows that maritime piracy increases conflict intensity, and that the inclusion of dynamic factors helps improve the predictive performance of empirical models of conflict events in in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.

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“…Drawing on a rich literature on mechanisms linking high-value resources with patterns of conflict (see, for instance, Ross 2004Ross , 2012Humphreys 2005;Weinstein 2005;Basedau, Mähler, and Shabafrouz 2014), I propose a number of mechanisms linking lootable resource endowment to recurring conflict (see Figure 1). The mechanisms can be grouped in opportunity-based and motive-based mechanisms, some of which operate directly and some indirectly through their effects on state or economic institutions.…”

Section: Causal Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Resource-related Conflict

Roy

2016

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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States endowed with valuable lootable natural resources tend to experience longer armed conflicts, more intense fighting in extractive regions and face a higher risk of recurring conflict than states without such resources. At the same time, many states defy resource-fueled conflict traps and set up institutional arrangements that seem to alleviate the risk of recurring conflict. However, policy makers and academics alike lack a sound understanding of the link between postconflict stabilization and strategies of resource management that often escape the paradigm of “good resource governance.” This article contributes to the questions of how to conceptualize diverse institutional arrangements in the resource sector and how to link these emerging institutions to postconflict stabilization. I develop a theoretical framework that predicts the risk of recurring armed conflict based on lootable resource management strategies and conditioning factors. The framework is then tested on a unique event history dataset. Results support the stabilizing effects of inclusive and publicly accountable modes of resource management as advocated for by proponents of “good resource governance.” Alternative resource management strategies either increase the risk of conflict recurrence or interact with other variables, changing the prospects of postconflict stability in important ways.

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Drilling Deeper: A Systematic, Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil–Conflict Link

Cited by 11 publications

References 32 publications

Local Politics and the Resource Curse: Natural Resources, Interest Heterogeneity and Protest in Bolivia

Local Politics and the Resource Curse: Natural Resources, Interest Heterogeneity and Protest in Bolivia

Financing rebellion

Managing Resource-related Conflict

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