Drinking, Driving, and Crashing: A Traffic-Flow Model of Alcohol-Related Motor Vehicle Accidents

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Objective: This study examined the infl uence of onpremise alcohol-outlet densities and of drinking-driver densities on rates of alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. A traffi c-fl ow model is developed to represent geographic relationships between residential locations of drinking drivers, alcohol outlets, and alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. Method: Cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional spatial analyses were performed using data collected from 144 geographic units over 4 years. Data were obtained from archival and survey sources in six communities. Archival data were obtained within community areas and measured activities of either the resident population or persons visiting these communities. These data included local and highway traffi c fl ow, locations of alcohol outlets, population density, network density of the local roadway system, and single-vehicle nighttime (SVN) crashes. Telephone-survey data obtained from residents of the communities were used to estimate the size of the resident drinking and driving population. Results: Cross-sectional analyses showed that effects relating on-premise densities to alcohol-related crashes were moderated by highway traffi c fl ow. Depending on levels of highway traffi c fl ow, 10% greater densities were related to 0% to 150% greater rates of SVN crashes. Time-series cross-sectional analyses showed that changes in the population pool of drinking drivers and on-premise densities interacted to increase SVN crash rates. Conclusions: A simple traffi c-fl ow model can assess the effects of on-premise alcohol-outlet densities and of drinking-driver densities as they vary across communities to produce alcohol-related crashes. Analyses based on these models can usefully guide policy decisions on the siting of on-premise alcohol outlets. STUDIES OF THE RELATIONSHIP between alcohol outlets and alcohol-related crashes have shown that greater numbers of alcohol outlets are related to higher motor vehicle crash rates across large geographic units such as provinces and cities (e.g., Rush et al., 1986;Watts and Rabow, 1983); within states over time (e.g., Escobedo and Ortiz, 2002;Holder and Blose, 1987); and within smaller geographic units, such as smaller cities within a dense urban region (e.g., Los Angeles; Scribner et al., 1994). Although studies have shown that at the neighborhood level outlet densities are related to crashes independently of local patterns of alcohol use (e.g., Van Oers and Garretsen, 1993), studies also have shown that greater travel distance between outlets is unrelated to greater crash (Gruenewald and Ponicki, 1995;Jewell and Brown, 1995) and arrest rates (Lapham et al., 1998). Finally, these studies have shown in addition that the geographic patterning of alcohol outlets and alcohol-related crash and arrest rates are related, with neighborhoods with greater outlet densities having more crashes and adjacent areas (even those with no alcohol outlets) also experiencing higher crash rates (Gruenewald et al., 1996;Lapham et al., 199...

Spatial relationships between alcohol-related road crashes and retail alcohol availability

“…These findings were consistent with most previous studies (Giacopassi and Winn, 1995; Gruenewald and Johnson, 2010; Gruenewald et al, 1996; Jewell and Brown, 1995; Kelleher et al, 1996; Lunn et al, 2000; McCarthy, 2003; Ponicki et al, 2013; Scribner et al, 1994; Treno et al, 2007) and our expectations given the geographic locations of origins and destinations of alcohol-affected journeys relative to on- and off-premise outlets. Alcohol-affected drivers are at increased risk of crashing after leaving an on-premise outlet (observable here within adjacent SA1 units).…”

Stressful life experiences, alcohol consumption, and alcohol use disorders: the epidemiologic evidence for four main types of stressors

“…Dynamic systems models are an approach to modeling the dynamic interplay between stress and alcohol use. These are increasingly utilized by alcohol researchers to more accurately model dynamic processes other than stressful life events in human populations (Galea et al 2010; Gruenewald and Johnson 2010; Gruenewald et al 2010; Yu et al 2009). No systems research has yet attempted to address the role of stress on alcohol consumption over time in the general population, but such research could aid in the etiologic investigation and specific estimation of effects of stressful life events on alcohol consumption, and also estimate the population-expected reduction in alcohol consumption and alcohol use disorders given the prevention of certain stressors.…”

Traffic Crashes and Alcohol Outlets in a Brazilian State Capital

“…However, in order for a traffic crash to occur, additional factors must be in place. Gruenewald and Johnson (2010) showed that the effect of alcohol outlets may be modulated by the relative flow of vehicles across specific roads. Depending on the intensity of the flow, an increase of 10 percent in alcohol outlet density may be associated with a 0 to 150 percent increase in the number of alcohol-related crashes.…”

“…Despite substantial methodological advances, studies have generated contradictory findings. Most studies have pointed to a positive but modest association between outlet density and crashes (Gruenewald and Johnson 2010;Toomey et al 2012;Treno et al 2007), but there are negative findings as well (Meliker et al 2004;Theall et al 2009). The underlying causes of the observed association remain to be fully clarified, as discussed in Gruenewald's (2007) and Livingston et al's (2007) reviews.…”