Drivers for the renaissance of coal

Abstract

Coal was central to the industrial revolution, but in the 20th century it increasingly was superseded by oil and gas. However, in recent years coal again has become the predominant source of global carbon emissions. We show that this trend of rapidly increasing coal-based emissions is not restricted to a few individual countries such as China. Rather, we are witnessing a global renaissance of coal majorly driven by poor, fast-growing countries that increasingly rely on coal to satisfy their growing energy demand. The low price of coal relative to gas and oil has played an important role in accelerating coal consumption since the end of the 1990s. In this article, we show that in the increasingly integrated global coal market the availability of a domestic coal resource does not have a statistically significant impact on the use of coal and related emissions. These findings have important implications for climate change mitigation: If future economic growth of poor countries is fueled mainly by coal, ambitious mitigation targets very likely will become infeasible. Building new coal power plant capacities will lead to lock-in effects for the next few decades. If that lock-in is to be avoided, international climate policy must find ways to offer viable alternatives to coal for developing countries. Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emission to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (1), global emissions have continued to rise steadily. Since 1971 global annual energy-related CO 2 emissions have more than doubled (Fig. 1A). In recent years emission growth has accelerated further, interrupted only briefly during the recent economic crisis. Assessments of the factors driving these developments using the Kaya* identity have identified growing per-capita incomes, especially in developing and newly industrializing countries, as the dominant reason for rising emissions (2, 3). [The Kaya* identity decomposes changes in emissions into changes in population, percapita income, the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP), and the carbon intensity of energy production. See Steckel et al. (2) for further information.] However, the growing carbon intensity of energy production (i.e., the amount of emissions generated to produce one unit of energy) also has played an important role, and the increased use of coal has been particularly important (2). Coal consumption not only has risen in line with a growing global economy but has outpaced the growth of total energy use. Although coal was central to the industrial revolution (4), it increasingly was superseded by oil and gas in the 20th century. With these recent developments, however, coal again has become the most important source of energy-related emissions on the global scale (Fig. 1B).The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (5) identifies the replacement of coalfired power plants by less carbon-intensive energy technologies as one of the most cost-efficient options...

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