Drivers of change in Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems: Examples from the European Arctic

Abstract

Fjord systems are transition zones between land and sea, resulting in complex and dynamic environments. They are of particular interest in the Arctic as they harbour ecosystems inhabited by a rich range of species and provide many societal benefits. The key drivers of change in European Arctic (i.e. Greenland, Svalbard, and Northern Norway) fjord socioecological systems are reviewed here, structured into five categories: cryosphere (sea-ice, glacier mass balance, glacial and riverine discharge), physics (seawater temperature, salinity, light), chemistry (carbonate system, nutrients), biology (primary production, biomass, species richness), and social (governance, tourism, fisheries). The data available for the past and present state of these drivers, as well as future model projections, are analysed in a companion paper. Changes to the two drivers at the base of most interactions within fjords, seawater temperature and glacier mass balance, will have the most significant and profound consequences on the future of European Arctic fjords. This is because even though governance may be effective at mitigating/adapting to local disruptions caused by the changing climate, there is possibly nothing that can be done to halt the melting of glaciers, the warming of fjord waters, and all of the downstream consequences that these two changes will have. This review provides the first transdisciplinary synthesis of the interactions between the drivers of change within Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems. Knowledge of what these drivers of change are, and how they interact with one another, should provide more expedient focus for future research on the needs of adapting to a changing Arctic.

A dataset for investigating socio-ecological changes in Arctic fjords

“…This is found in Fig. 2 of Schlegel et al (2023), which shows the key relationships between drivers and the direction of their interactions, as determined from the literature. Because the aim of this dataset is to allow for investigations of the interactions between drivers within a given Arctic fjord socioecological system, we did not compare data across sites.…”

“…sea water or degrees Celsius) from the list of variables. While all of the data originally identified were aggregated, a literature review performed for this same project revealed that the important interactions within socio-ecological systems would be better expressed as broad drivers rather than individual variables (Schlegel et al, 2023). In reaction to this, further pruning of the dataset outlined here revealed that many of the variables from the initial list had little to no available data.…”

“…The rate of loss for the Arctic cryosphere driven by the changing climate is alarmingly rapid (Schlegel et al, 2023), making it critical that Arctic fjord systems be as actively monitored as possible. Even though this monitoring in the polar north is both challenging and costly, there has been a concerted international effort to maintain and increase it.…”

“…Therefore, a primary consideration during the creation of an Arctic fjord dataset designed to allow for the investigation of the full socio-ecological system within fjords is how to combine many spatially and temporally disjointed datasets when they may not have the same units of measurement or have otherwise not been sampled with comparable methodologies. To begin to address this issue, a panel of experts in a range of natural and social science fields identified the most relevant aspects of Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems (Schlegel et al, 2023). The structure of these systems was organised as follows: category → driver → variable.…”

Biogeographic gradients of picoplankton diversity indicate increasing dominance of prokaryotes in warmer Arctic fjords

“…Microorganisms, the key players in marine primary productivity and recycling organic matter, form the base of the marine food web and drive major biogeochemical cycles such as carbon and nitrogen 7 . They form unique, regional communities in sub-Antarctic fjords 8 , whose occurrence and/or maintenance is of high interest in understanding the coupling between biodiversity and physical dynamics of Arctic ecosystems 9 . Analysis of microbes and their role in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems requires trait-based approaches, especially considering the large size range (micro-, nano-, and picoplankton) and differential ecological roles of microbes 10 .…”