Drivers of Change in Ecosystems of Chilean Patagonia: Current and Projected Trends

Abstract

Identifying and analyzing the effects of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems is a critical step in conservation planning. This chapter identifies and analyzes the evolution of direct and indirect drivers of change in the ecosystems of Chile's Patagonia region. We analyzed native forest degradation, mining expansion, tourism, energy generation, agriculture and livestock, and fisheries and aquaculture production as direct drivers. As indirect drivers we included demographic dynamics, economic growth, and institutional factors. Using a cluster analysis, we identified eight types of municipalities that reflect differentiated territorial characteristics and dynamics in terms of these drivers. These included municipalities characterized primarily by dynamics of urban growth, mining, tourism, aquaculture, forest exploitation, livestock development, and particularities in the ethnic composition of the territories, as well as municipalities where the drivers were concentrated in a non-distinguishable way. This diversity of situations suggests the need for differentiated conservation strategies that target the specific pressures on the different ecosystems and territories of South Patagonia.