Drivers of Change to Mountain Sustainability in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Wang, Yanfen; Wu, Ning; Kunze, Clemens; Long, Ruijun; Perlik, Manfred

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_2

Cited by 63 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 264 publications

(247 reference statements)

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“…The percentage of households entering into debt following subpar crop yields is only in the mid-single digits. This suggests that despite considerable literature focusing on vulnerability of mountain smallholders to climate change and other contemporary stressors (Gerlitz et al, 2017;Montaña et al, 2016;Panthi et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2019), regular happenstance can be just as important, if not more so. By narrowly focusing on topics that are in academic vogue like climate change, demographic change, and economic change, some of the biggest and more mundane reasons why households get into trouble are neglected.…”

Section: Interaction Of Stressorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent estimates suggest that thirteen percent of the world's population reside in mountainous areas (FAO, 2015); the vast majority in rural communities in developing or transitioning countries. While change has long been part of mountain life, the current rate, magnitude, nature, and number of transformations is unprecedented (Wang et al, 2019). Many areas have seen dramatic population growth, increased pressure on land and resources, climate changes, large scale youth emigration, increased inflow of remittances, improved connectivity and service provision, and a growing penetration of capitalism with a consequent reorientation of agricultural economies (Körner et al, 2005;Parish, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within this model we simulate the effect of increasing crop variability, declining fertility rates, and earthquake events on village demographics and household finances. These stressors were chosen because they were all particularly pertinent at the project field site and exemplify the types of challenges currently experienced in mountain systems around the world (Wang et al, 2019). By considering them together, we are able to explore the combinatory effect of both gradualand rapid-onset processes and events -something that few studies have previous attempted (Olsson et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of multiple stressors on mountain communities: Insights from an agent-based model of a Nepalese village

Roxburgh

Stringer

Evans

et al. 2021

Global Environmental Change

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Mountain communities in developing and transitioning countries are experiencing a period of rapid social, economic, and environmental change. While change has long been a feature of mountain life, the rate, magnitude, nature, and number of the transformations now taking place is unprecedented, with profound implications for the sustainability and welfare of mountain communities in the coming years. It is therefore vital that their potential impacts be understood. Considering stressors in isolation can give a false picture as each stressor alters the context within which the other stressors are operating. Holistic approaches are needed. In this paper, a variety of stressors are concurrently simulated within an empirically informed agent-based model of a rural Nepalese mountain community so that their combined impact can be studied. The potential effect of changing fertility rates, increasing crop yield variability, and earthquakes on household finances is considered for the period 2015-2030. Results show that higher fertility rates, increased crop yield variability, and earthquakes all have negative long-term effects on household finances, and that each of these stressors compounds the effect of the other stressors in an additive fashion. Results further highlight heterogeneity in the capacity of households to cope with stressors and demonstrate the important role that happenstance can play in exacerbating the effect of stressors. Our findings suggest that development practitioners should explicitly take multiple stressors into account when considering interventions. They should also contemplate improved microtargeting of households to increase aid effectiveness over the longer term, while recognising that household vulnerability is often dynamic.

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Section: Interaction Of Stressorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impacts of multiple stressors on mountain communities: Insights from an agent-based model of a Nepalese village

Roxburgh

Stringer

Evans

et al. 2021

Global Environmental Change

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“…Climate change is likely to affect the Hindu Kush Himalaya region strongly. Changing monsoon patterns with more and stronger storms can negatively impact agriculture, peoples' livelihoods and destroy infrastructure and can result in an increased risk of hazards (Wang et al, 2019).…”

Section: Governancementioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing capacities of local communities in a changing context in Nepal

Rolsted

Raju

2020

DPM

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PurposeThe field study aimed at exploring how capacities are influenced by external factors in the context of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR).Design/methodology/approachThe field study was conducted in a small rural area called Lapsibot in Lamjung district in Nepal. The article is based on a fieldwork conducted in April 2018. The different tools of data collection were inspired by the vulnerability and capacity assessment approach with a focus on various aspects of vulnerabilities and capacities with regard to disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Lapsibot.FindingsThe paper highlights that communities, in fact, need enhanced and extended capacities, not only existing inherent capacities, which are usually the main subject of capacity development in rural communities.Originality/valueWhile there is absolutely no question of strong capacities at the community level, this paper appeals for a more in-depth investigation of an extended notion of capacities, where the effects of the rapid changes and increasing impact of the outside world are taken into consideration.

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“…Reduction in runoff has serious implications for the extensive downstream areas of the Indus river and especially for the people who rely on meltwater for their water supply [16][17][18]. Climate change is projected to compound the pressure on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development [19] and interact with these resources in a complex way across the HKH [20]. Better understanding of the potential impact on downstream water availability resulting from changes in snow and glacier reserves in the high mountain catchments of the Indus will be crucial for future planning in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Balance Assessment under Different Glacier Coverage Scenarios in the Hunza Basin

Shrestha

Nepal

2019

Water

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The potential impact of glacier recession on river discharge from the Hunza river basin was estimated as an indicator for downstream changes in the Indus river system. The J2000 model was used to analyze the water balance in the basin and simulate the contribution of snow and ice melt to total discharge at present and under three scenarios of glacier recession. Precipitation was corrected using virtual weather stations created at a higher elevation and a precipitation gradient. Snowmelt from the whole basin contributed, on average, 45% of the total river discharge during the modeling period and 47% of the ice melt from the glacier area. Total ice melt declined by 55%, 81%, and 96% under scenarios of glacier recession to 4000, 4500, and 5000 masl, respectively. The contribution of ice melt to river discharge decreased to 29%, 14%, and 4% under the three scenarios, while total discharge from the Hunza river decreased by 28%, 40%, and 46%. The results suggest that glacier recession in the Hunza river basin could have serious implications for downstream water availability. Understanding melt contribution in the basin based on ongoing and projected future climatic change can play a crucial role in future water resource management.

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Drivers of Change to Mountain Sustainability in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Cited by 63 publications

References 264 publications

Impacts of multiple stressors on mountain communities: Insights from an agent-based model of a Nepalese village

Impacts of multiple stressors on mountain communities: Insights from an agent-based model of a Nepalese village

Addressing capacities of local communities in a changing context in Nepal

Water Balance Assessment under Different Glacier Coverage Scenarios in the Hunza Basin

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