Drivers of global and national CO₂ emissions changes 2000–2017

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of CO 2 emissions changes is useful in supporting future mitigation. This study applies a log-mean divisia index decomposition to assess four drivers of CO 2 emissions changespopulation, income, energy intensity and carbon intensityin 138 countries worldwide over the period 2000-2017. At the global level, income and population are the main drivers of increased emissions over time, with contributions of 116% and 60% to global CO 2 emissions changes, respectively. Energy intensity is the key mitigation driver, with a contribution of −80%. Although carbon intensity increased CO 2 emissions overall over the period 2000-2017 with a contribution of 4%, it has started to reduce emissions in recent years. China, the United States of America, the European Union, India and Russia are the five regions responsible for most changes in global emissions. The five regions together contribute −73% of the energy intensity effect, and China's income contribution is 83% in relation to the total of 116%. At the national level, in 2017, CO 2 emissions returned to below 2000 levels in 62% of Annex I (developed) countries but increased in 88% of non-Annex I (mostly developing) countries. Among the 35 countries realizing CO 2 emissions reductions, 24 were driven primarily by energy intensity, six by carbon intensity, three by economic recession, and one by population decrease. Among the 103 countries with increasing CO 2 emissions, 63 were driven primarily by income, 26 by population, nine by carbon intensity increase, and five by energy intensity increase. Our analysis emphasizes the necessity of considering differences in national development stages when formulating climate change mitigation policies. Key policy insights:. Over the period 2000-2017, at the global and national levels, CO 2 emissions increases were driven mainly by economic development and population growth, and mitigation was driven mainly by energy intensity improvement.. Improving energy intensity and carbon intensity is the key to mitigating CO 2 emissions. Carbon intensity is expected to play an increasing role in the future.. In over one-third of Annex I countries, CO 2 emissions increased from 2000 to 2017. To meet the Paris Agreement goals, Annex I countries will need to enhance mitigation ambition by further tapping the mitigation potentials of energy and carbon intensity.. In accordance with national circumstances, development needs and international support, non-Annex I countries should achieve low-carbon economic and energy transitions and peak CO 2 emissions as early as possible.

Üreti̇m Mi̇, Tüketi̇m Mi Beli̇rleyi̇ci̇? 1990-2015 Yillarinda Türkiye Co2 Emisyonlarinin Kaynaklari Ve Poli̇ti̇ka Etki̇leri̇

“…Decomposition methods are frequently used to identify the drivers of energy or environment related magnitudes such as energy consumption, pollutant emissions, CO2 emissions which help more efficient policy making. 4 Findings of most recent decomposition studies at the global level showed that income is the primary driver of carbon emissions increases and population is the second driver increasing emissions while progress in technology and energy intensity 5 acted to curb emissions (Arto and Dietzenbacher, 2014;Chang, Dong, Sui and Chu, 2019;Dong, Jiang, Sun and Dong, 2019;Xia, Wang, Liu and Pan, 2020). About contribution of another generally studied factor, carbon intensity, Xia et al, (2020) found that its contribution remained very small starting in the 2000s and gradually became negative up to 2017 which is in contrast to the positive contribution found in Chang et al (2019).…”

“…4 Findings of most recent decomposition studies at the global level showed that income is the primary driver of carbon emissions increases and population is the second driver increasing emissions while progress in technology and energy intensity 5 acted to curb emissions (Arto and Dietzenbacher, 2014;Chang, Dong, Sui and Chu, 2019;Dong, Jiang, Sun and Dong, 2019;Xia, Wang, Liu and Pan, 2020). About contribution of another generally studied factor, carbon intensity, Xia et al, (2020) found that its contribution remained very small starting in the 2000s and gradually became negative up to 2017 which is in contrast to the positive contribution found in Chang et al (2019). Dong et al (2019) decomposed CO2 emissions of High Income (HI), Upper Middle Income (UMI), Lower Middle Income (LMI) and Lower Income (LI) country groups (World Bank, 2020b) from 1980 through 2015 with LMDI method.…”

“…China's CO2 emissions increases were driven by economic development and population (Zheng et al 2020), but since 2012, the beginning of the new normal economy, emissions showed a plateauing trajectory which was driven by improvements in energy intensity (Zheng, Mi, Coffman, Shan, Guan and Wang 2019). As an HI country and ranked second in global emissions, USA's emissions decrease by energy intensity and carbon intensity improvements, while income and population continued to increase emissions (Sesso, Amancio-Vieira, Zapparoli and Sesso Filho, 2020;Henriques and Borowiecki, 2017;Xia et al, 2020). EU which mostly comprises of HI countries realizes emissions reductions since the 2000s by improvements in energy intensity, but income and population factors have still increasing effect on its emissions (Sesso et al, 2020;Henriques and Borowiecki, 2017;Perrier, Guivarch, Boucher, 2019;Xia et al, 2020).…”

“…As an HI country and ranked second in global emissions, USA's emissions decrease by energy intensity and carbon intensity improvements, while income and population continued to increase emissions (Sesso, Amancio-Vieira, Zapparoli and Sesso Filho, 2020;Henriques and Borowiecki, 2017;Xia et al, 2020). EU which mostly comprises of HI countries realizes emissions reductions since the 2000s by improvements in energy intensity, but income and population factors have still increasing effect on its emissions (Sesso et al, 2020;Henriques and Borowiecki, 2017;Perrier, Guivarch, Boucher, 2019;Xia et al, 2020). In India and Russia, the other two most contributing countries, energy intensity was the primary mitigating factor, and while income acted to increase emissions in Russia, income and population together were resulting increase in India's emissions (Xia et al, 2020).…”

Driving Factors of Energy Consumption in the Developed Regions of Developing Countries: A Case of Zhejiang Province, China

“…Scholars use the LMDI method to study energy consumption growth or carbon emission factors (see Table 1). [17,23,24,[26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33].…”