Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis

Marcucci, Adriana; Fragkos, Panagiotis

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.009

Cited by 37 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Despite of the advances in energy efficiency and in the share of renewable sources, CO 2 emissions have increased in relative terms with respect to energy consumption. This result is in line with the work of some authors [22] who found that a scenario of no climate change or no technology transfer fits better with historical trends for India, the USA and Europe. Therefore, by considering the link between energy and carbon emissions, as well as between energy consumption and GDP as stated above, this research did not enter the discussion of decarbonization directly, but included it in two ways: (i) by considering the improvements in energy efficiency that can come with the transfer of technology; and (ii) by accounting for recent voluntary commitments, the so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), presented in the Paris Agreement in the COP21 that took place in Paris in December 2015.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change

et al. 2019

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The rate of CO2 emissions concentration in the atmosphere increases the likelihood of significant impacts on humankind and ecosystems. The assumption that permissible levels of greenhouse gas emissions cannot exceed the global average temperature increase of 2 °C in relation to pre-industrial levels remains uncertain. Despite this uncertainty, the direct implication is that enormous quantities of fossil fuels have, thus far, wrongly been counted as assets by hydrocarbon firms as they cannot be exploited if we want to keep climate under certain control. These are the so-called “toxic assets”. Due to the relationship among CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, and energy efficiency, the concept of toxic assets can be transferred to toxic income, which is the income level that would generate levels of CO2 emissions incompatible with keeping climate change under control. This research, using a simulation model based on country-based econometric models, estimated a threshold for income per capita above which the temperature limit of 2 °C would be surpassed. Under the business as usual scenario, average per capita income would be $14,208 (in constant 2010 USD) in 2033; and under the intervention scenario, which reflects the commitments of the COP21 meeting held in Paris in December 2015, the toxic revenue would be $13,433 (in constant 2010 USD) in 2036.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change

et al. 2019

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“…A decomposition method can be applied to identify structural changes contributing to energy consumption trends. This can also be used to validate the model baseline results by historic comparison, as shown by Marcucci and Fragkos (2015) at the regional level. Although more sophisticated methods exists, the Laspeyres decomposition analysis is an appropriate method to distinguish model dynamics underlying the projected futures.…”

Section: Suitability Of the Decomposition Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

Edelenbosch

McCollum

Vuuren

et al. 2017

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

113

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International audienceThe transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as-usual scenario. In policy-induced mitigation scenarios further enhancements of energy efficiency and fuel switching is seen, showing a clear break with historical trends. Reduced activity growth and modal shift (towards less carbon-intensive modes) only have a limited contribution to emission reduction. Measures that could induce such changes could possibly complement the aggressive, technology switch required in the current scenarios to reach internationally agreed climate targets

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“…However, decomposition analysis does not allow for hypothesis testing, impeding the ability to obtain reliable empirically tested conclusions. Relevant examples of this type of studies are [8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Growth in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Determinants

Sánchez

Martín-Ortega²

2020

Sustainability

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Understanding the underlying reasons for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends in different countries is fundamental for climate change mitigation. This paper identifies the main determinants that affect GHG emissions growth and assesses their impact and differences among countries in Europe. Previous studies have produced inconclusive results and presented several limitations, such as the lack of quality of the data used, the reduced identification of determinants and the use of methods that did not enable hypothesis testing. Conversely, this research identifies an extended list of determinants of GHG emissions, performs an in-depth statistical analysis and contrasts the significance of determinants using panel data and multiple linear regression models for the period 1990–2017 for the main Eurozone countries. The study found that GDP and final energy intensity are the main drivers for the reduction of GHG emissions in Europe. Furthermore, energy prices are not significant and heterogeneous results are found for the renewable energy, fuel mix and carbon intensity determinants, pointing to a different behavior at the country level. The uneven impact of the main determinants of GHG emission growth suggest that a differentiated application of European policies at country level will enhance the efficiency of mitigation efforts in Europe.

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Drivers of regional decarbonization through 2100: A multi-model decomposition analysis

Cited by 37 publications

References 48 publications

Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change

Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change

Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Growth in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Determinants

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