Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China’s Power Sector for Low‐Carbon Economy

Abstract

The largest percentage of China’s total coal consumption is used for coal-fired power generation, which has resulted in the power sector becoming China’s largest carbon emissions emitter. Most of the previous studies concerning the driving factors of carbon emissions changes lacked considerations of different socioeconomic factors. This study examines the impacts of eight factors from different aspects on carbon emissions within power sector from 1981 to 2013 by using the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model; in addition, the regression coefficients are effectively determined by a partial least squares regression (PLS) method. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of influence of various factors from strong to weak is urbanization level (UL) > technology level (T1) > population (P) > GDP per capita (A) > line loss (T2) > power generation structure (T3) > energy intensity (T4) > industry structure (IS); (2) economic activity is no longer the most important contributing factor; the strong correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth is weakening; and (3) the coal consumption rate of power generation had the most obvious inhibitory effect, indicating that technological progress is still a vital means of achieving emissions reductions.

Decomposition and Forecasting of CO2 Emissions in China’s Power Sector Based on STIRPAT Model with Selected PLS Model and a Novel Hybrid PLS-Grey-Markov Model

“…Line loss rate is found to be a critical factor negatively influencing the growth of CO 2 emissions of the electricity sector, and such a conclusion is consistent with [42,52]. This indicates the loss rate of electricity during the transport process has been decreasing, leading to the amount of electricity reaching the terminal to rise.…”

“…The line loss rate declined from 8.77% in 1995 to 6.47% in 2016; however electricity production and transmission are extremely large, and losses in transmission and distribution are inevitable and cannot be ignored. For example, in 2012, aggregate electricity wastage in transmission and distribution was 289.62 TWh, greater than two year's power use in Shanghai in terms of the current year [42]. In addition, although China has increased its technological innovation in power grid improvement, many cities have less investment in electricity-producing equipment, resulting in increased age of power transmission lines and outdated devices, and, hence, large transmission and distribution losses.…”

“…Drivers influencing CO 2 emissions are classified under four headings. The first is population, represented by total population or urbanization level in earlier literature, which are found to be the contributory drivers of CO 2 emissions [27][28][29][30][41][42][43][44]. The second is affluence, usually reflected by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.…”

“…In addition, the STIRPAT model can be extended by adding extra variables for studying more probable factors pertaining to CO 2 emissions [40]. For the purpose of investigating the effects of the drivers of the CO 2 emissions of the power industry, considering the specific development situation and learning from relevant research experience, a few more factors have been included [41,42]. CO 2 emissions can be seen as a type of environmental influence due to their impact on climate change.…”

Research on the Survival and Sustainable Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in China under the Background of Low-Carbon Economy

“…Low-carbon economy are not based only on reducing energy consumption but also in changing the energy source [7][8][9]. It plays an important role in improving energy efficiency and reducing environmental pollution [10]. At present, China has formulated a national policy for the development of a low-carbon economic line to achieve green economic development through industrial upgrading and economic transformation [11].…”