Driving forces of population change following the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand: A multiscale geographically weighted regression approach

Abstract

The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), which includes the 2010 and 2011Christchurch earthquakes, is one of the deadliest disasters in New Zealand history.Following the CES, displacement of the affected population occurred, leading to an out-migration from affected areas and changes to places of residence. This paper investigates the spatial changes in population following the CES, using a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) analysis approach to examine if there is a relationship between population change within the Canterbury region, and potential driving forces across two time periods : 2006-2013 and 2013-2018. The findings of this study could assist in informing future decision making and planning for earthquake events and to increase the effectiveness of land use policy decisions for post-disaster recovery in New Zealand.