Driving Roles of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Thermal Anomalies in Intensification and Persistence of the Arctic Superstorm in 2012

Wei, Tao; Zhang, Jing; Fu, Yunfei; Zhang, Xiangdong

doi:10.1002/2017gl074778

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Consistent with the findings of Yamagami et al (2018a), Yamazaki et al (2015) found that assimilation of additional radiosonde observations was crucial for accurate forecasts of this cyclone. Tao et al (2017a) also found that a polar vortex was important for the intensification of this cyclone, specifically through its role in intensifying the upper-tropospheric jet. A similarly exceptional Arctic cyclone developed in 2016, lasting for more than 1 month.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…An ongoing World Meteorological Organization World Weather Research Programme (the Polar Prediction Project) was developed in recognition of the importance of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions. The mesoscale to synoptic-scale tropopause-based coherent vortices (called tropopause polar vortices, TPVs) frequently observed in polar regions (Hakim and Canavan, 2005;Cavallo and Hakim, 2009) are hypothesised to play a central role in Arctic cyclone genesis and intensification (Tao et al, 2017a;Yamagami et al, 2017Yamagami et al, , 2018a. In this paper we present a climatology of summer Arctic cyclones and TPVs by tracking features in the latest global reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA5, and deduce the role of TPVs in the initiation, intensification and structure of Arctic cyclones.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones

Gray

Hodges

Vautrey

et al. 2021

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. Human activity in the Arctic is increasing as new regions become accessible, with a consequent need for improved understanding of hazardous weather there. Arctic cyclones are the major weather systems affecting the Arctic environment during summer, including the sea ice distribution. Mesoscale to synoptic-scale tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) frequently occur in polar regions and are a proposed mechanism for Arctic cyclone genesis and intensification. However, while the importance of pre-existing tropopause-level features for cyclone development, as well as being an integral part of the three-dimensional mature cyclone structure, is well established in the mid-latitudes, evidence of the importance of pre-existing TPVs for Arctic cyclone development is mainly limited to a few case studies. Here we examine the extent to which Arctic cyclone growth is coupled to TPVs by analysing a climatology of summer Arctic cyclones and TPVs produced by tracking both features in the latest ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5). The annual counts of Arctic cyclones and TPVs are significantly correlated for features with genesis either within or outside the Arctic, implying that TPVs have a role in the development of Arctic cyclones. However, only about one-third of Arctic cyclones have their genesis or intensify while a TPV of Arctic origin is (instantaneously) within about twice the Rossby radius of the cyclone centre. Consistent with the different track densities of the full sets of Arctic cyclones and TPVs, cyclones with TPVs within range throughout their intensification phase (matched cyclones) track preferentially over the Arctic Ocean along the North American coastline and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In contrast, cyclones intensifying distant from any TPV (unmatched cyclones) track preferentially along the northern coast of Eurasia. Composite analysis reveals the presence of a distinct relative vorticity maximum at and above the tropopause level associated with the TPV throughout the intensification period for matched cyclones and that these cyclones have a reduced upstream tilt compared to unmatched cyclones. Interaction of cyclones with TPVs has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime but relatively small spatial scale of TPVs compared with the density of the polar observation network.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones

Gray

Hodges

Vautrey

et al. 2021

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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“…Intense and long-lasting storms have more frequently occurred over the Arctic Ocean, which have obviously caused or contributed to the occurrence of extreme events, including record lows of sea-ice extents in summer and record highs of warm temperature in winters [24][25][26][27][28]. To understand intense and long-lasting storms and identify sources of their predictability, detailed observational and modeling studies have revealed that these Arctic storms have demonstrated unique dynamic and thermodynamic structures and driving mechanisms [19,20,22,23], different from their midlatitude counterpart [52].…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the impacts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation forcing, synoptic scale Arctic storm activities have also demonstrated substantial influences on various aspects of Arctic sea ice properties and surface climate [8,[16][17][18]. In particular, intense and long-lasting storms have more frequently occurred over the Arctic Ocean during recent decades [19][20][21][22][23]. They have obviously caused or contributed to the observed extreme events, such as the record minima of summer sea ice extent in 2012 and 2016 and the record maxima of winter surface air temperature in 2015/2016 and 2017/2018 [24][25][26][27][28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Intense Summer Storms and Their Impacts on Sea Ice—A Regional Climate Modeling Study

et al. 2019

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Various temporal and spatial changes have manifested in Arctic storm activities, including the occurrence of the anomalously intense storms in the summers of 2012 and 2016, along with the amplified warming and rapidly decreased sea ice. To detect the variability of and changes in storm activity and understand its role in sea ice changes, we examined summer storm count and intensity year-by-year from ensemble hindcast simulations with an Arctic regional coupled climate model for the period of 1948–2008. The results indicated that the model realistically simulated the climatological spatial structure of the storm activity, characterized by the storm count and intensity. The simulated storm count captures the variability derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis, though the simulated one is higher than that in the reanalysis. This could be attributed to the higher resolution of the model that may better represent smaller and shallower cyclones. The composite analysis shows that intense storms tend to form a low-pressure pattern with centers over the Kara Sea and Chukchi Sea, respectively, generating cyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Arctic Ocean. The former drives intensification of the transpolar drift and Fram Strait sea ice export, and the latter suppresses thick ice transport from the Canada Basin to the Beaufort–Chukchi Seas, in spite of an increase in sea ice transport to the East Siberian Sea. Associated with these changes in sea ice transport, sea ice concentration and thickness show large decreases in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Chukchi–East-Siberian Seas, respectively. Energy budgets analysis suggests that more numerous intense storms substantially decrease the downward net sea ice heat fluxes, including net radiative fluxes, turbulent fluxes, and oceanic heat fluxes, compared with that when a lower number of intense storms occur. The decrease in the heat fluxes could be attributable to an increased cloudiness and the resultant reduction of downward shortwave radiation, as well as a destabilized boundary layer induced increase in upward turbulent fluxes.

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“…Consistent with the findings of Yamagami et al (2018a), Yamazaki et al (2015) found that assimilation of additional radiosonde observations was crucial for accurate forecasts of this cyclone. Tao et al (2017) also found that a polar vortex was important for the intensification of this cyclone, specifically through its role in intensifying the upper-tropospheric jet. A similarly exceptional Arctic cyclone developed in 2016, lasting for more than one month.…”

mentioning

confidence: 83%

The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones

Gray

Hodges

Vautrey

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Human activity in the Arctic is increasing as new regions become accessible, with a consequent need for improved understanding of hazardous weather there. Arctic cyclones are the major weather systems affecting the Arctic environment during summer, including the sea ice distribution. Meso- to synoptic-scale tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) frequently occur in polar regions and are a proposed mechanism for Arctic cyclone genesis and intensification. However, while the importance of pre-existing tropopause-level features for cyclone development, and their existence as part of the three-dimensional mature cyclone structure, is well established in the mid-latitudes, evidence of the importance of pre-existing TPVs for Arctic cyclone development is mainly limited to a few case studies. Here we examine the extent to which Arctic cyclone growth is coupled to TPVs by analysing a climatology of summer Arctic cyclones and TPV characteristics produced by tracking both features in the latest ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5). The annual counts of Arctic cyclones and TPVs are significantly correlated for features with genesis either within or outside the Arctic, implying that TPVs have a role in the development of Arctic cyclones. However, from their proximity, only about one third of Arctic cyclones intensify while influenced by a TPV and a maximum of 10 % have a nearby TPV at their genesis time. Consistent with the track densities of the full sets of Arctic cyclones and TPVs, cyclones associated with TPVs during their intensification phase (matched cyclones) track preferentially over the Arctic Ocean along the North American coastline and Canadian Archipelago. In contrast, cyclones intensifying distant from any TPV (unmatched cyclones) track preferentially along the north coast of Eurasia. Composite analysis reveals the presence of a distinct relative vorticity maximum at and above the tropopause level associated with the TPV throughout the intensification period for matched cyclones and that these cyclones have a reduced upstream tilt compared to unmatched cyclones. Interaction of cyclones with TPVs has implications for the predictability of Arctic weather, given the long lifetime, but relatively small spatial scale of TPVs compared with the density of the polar observation network.

show abstract

Driving Roles of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Thermal Anomalies in Intensification and Persistence of the Arctic Superstorm in 2012

Cited by 18 publications

References 34 publications

The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones

The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones

Arctic Intense Summer Storms and Their Impacts on Sea Ice—A Regional Climate Modeling Study

The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones

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