Drought and climate change assessment using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for Sarawak River Basin

Bong, Charles Hin Joo; Richard, Jacqueline A.

doi:10.2166/wcc.2019.036

Cited by 48 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Following this, the World Meteorological Organization reported that droughts have hit Sarawak numerous times since the 1970s due to a great decrease in rainfall associated with El Niño events [66]. It has also been predicted that droughts will hit Sarawak harder and for more prolonged periods in the future [67] with an expected increase temperature of 3.8 • C [68]. Judging from future climate change projections, the capacity of these communities to adapt to future climate stressors will be further challenged.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Climate Change: Does Traditional Ecological Knowledge Hold the Key?

2020

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The traditional knowledge of indigenous people is often neglected despite its significance in combating climate change. This study uncovers the potential of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) from the perspective of indigenous communities in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, and explores how TEK helps them to observe and respond to local climate change. Data were collected through interviews and field work observations and analysed using thematic analysis based on the TEK framework. The results indicated that these communities have observed a significant increase in temperature, with uncertain weather and seasons. Consequently, drought and wildfires have had a substantial impact on their livelihoods. However, they have responded to this by managing their customary land and resources to ensure food and resource security, which provides a respectable example of the sustainable management of terrestrial and inland ecosystems. The social networks and institutions of indigenous communities enable collective action which strengthens the reciprocal relationships that they rely on when calamity strikes. Accordingly, the communities maintain their TEK through cultural festivals and oral traditions passed from one generation to another. TEK is a practical tool that helps indigenous communities adapt to climate risks and promotes socio-ecological resilience, which upholds social empowerment and sustainable resource management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Climate Change: Does Traditional Ecological Knowledge Hold the Key?

2020

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“…Sen's slope estimator is commonly used with the MK test; the two parameters are widely used in detecting trends of variables in meteorology and hydrology fields [12].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Test and Sen's Slopementioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change on water inflow of the three largest dams in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region

2021

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Drought and water scarcity are resulting from the effects of climate change during recent decades. The region of Beni Mellal Khenifra, by the nature of its economic activities based particularly on agriculture and the availability of water resources, is considered among the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change in Morocco. In this paper, we analyzed the impact of climate change on the three largest dams in the region (Hassan first, Bin El Ouidane and Ahmed El Hansali), based on statistical data from five stations over 1990-2020. We used Normalized Precipitation Index (SPI) to characterize climatic drought, the Mann-Kendall test to assess the trend of temperature changes, Kendall’s tau and linear regression to detect the relationship between climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) and water supplies from the three dams. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results showed that the region underwent a significant rainfall deficit between 19911995, 2000-2003, 2005-2008, and 2017-2020. Their intensity varies from moderate to severe type. Moreover, temperature values obtained by Mann– Kendall test showed an increasing trend for all stations. Correlation analysis of rainfall and temperature with inflow dams showed that the mean annual inflows dams are directly proportional to the yearly average SPI increase.

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“…For this, numerous indices have been put forward by researchers. Some of them are, the Palme Drought Severity Index (PDSI) [12], Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) [13], Palfai Aridity Index (PAI) [14], Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [15,16], and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The examination through any of above indices is subject to the essence of the index, local surroundings, accessibility of facts and rationality [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Drought: A Case Study of Water-Stressed Region of Pakistan

et al. 2021

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Demand for water resources has increased dramatically due to the global increase in consumption of water, which has resulted in water depletion. Additionally, global climate change has further resulted as an impediment to human survival. Moreover, Pakistan is among the countries that have already crossed the water scarcity line, experiencing drought in the water-stressed Thar desert. Drought mitigation actions can be effectively achieved by forecasting techniques. This research describes the application of a linear stochastic model, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), to predict the drought pattern. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is calculated to develop ARIMA models to forecast drought in a hyper-arid environment. In this study, drought forecast is demonstrated by results achieved from ARIMA models for various time periods. Result shows that the values of p, d, and q (non-seasonal model parameter) and P, D, and Q (seasonal model parameter) for the same SPEI period in the proposed models are analogous where “p” is the order of autoregressive lags, q is the order of moving average lags and d is the order of integration. Additionally, these parameters show the strong likeness for Moving Average (M.A) and Autoregressive (A.R) parameter values. From the various developed models for the Thar region, it has been concluded that the model (0,1,0)(1,0,2) is the best ARIMA model at 24 SPEI and could be considered as a generalized model. In the (0,1,0) model, the A.R term is 0, the difference/order of integration is 1 and the moving average is 0, and in the model (1,0,2) whose A.R has the 1st lag, the difference/order of integration is 0 and the moving average has 2 lags. Larger values for R2 greater than 0.9 and smaller values of Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Percentile Error (MPE), Mean Absolute Percentile Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Square Error (MASE) provide the acceptance of the generalized model. Consequently, this research suggests that drought forecasting can be effectively fulfilled by using ARIMA models, which can be assist policy planners of water resources to place safeguards keeping in view the future severity of the drought.

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Drought and climate change assessment using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for Sarawak River Basin

Cited by 48 publications

References 9 publications

Adaptation to Climate Change: Does Traditional Ecological Knowledge Hold the Key?

Adaptation to Climate Change: Does Traditional Ecological Knowledge Hold the Key?

The impact of climate change on water inflow of the three largest dams in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region

Forecasting of Drought: A Case Study of Water-Stressed Region of Pakistan

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