Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation

Abstract

Abstract.Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore can fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they tend to lead to unintended consequences in the long term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe an initial effort to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between hydrological extremes and changing reservoir operation rules. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

“…Global and local changes (including change in climate, LULC, and water consumption) can have significant impacts on the hydrological cycle and all types of drought, especially hydrological drought. For example, the hydrological drought (or streamflow) is not only affected by the climate and catchment characteristics but also human activities, such as irrigation or operation of dams and reservoirs (Di Baldassarre et al, ; He et al, ; Seibert et al, ). Human activities, such as extracting groundwater or water transfer over long distances, may also induce drought and are thus required to be incorporated in drought modeling and diagnosis (Mote et al, ; Pielke et al, ; Van Loon, Stahl, et al, ).…”

Exploring the Influence of Smallholders' Perceptions Regarding Water Availability on Crop Choice and Water Allocation Through Socio‐Hydrological Modeling

“…Also, as we are interested in the potential mechanisms behind observed behavior, we adopt a stylized approach. Several sociohydrological studies have already incorporated insights from sociology and psychology into quantitative, dynamic models leading to an increased understanding of system functioning (Di Baldassarre et al, 2013Baldassarre et al, , 2017Elshafei et al, 2014;Garcia et al, 2016;Kuil et al, 2016;Le et al, 2012;Tsai et al, 2015;Viglione et al, 2014;Yu et al, 2017).…”

Human–water interface in hydrological modelling: current status and future directions

“…LPJmL Konzmann et al, 2013), JULES flood induced by climate extremes (e.g. Milly et al, 2005;Hirabayashi et al, 2013;Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2013;Dankers et al, 2014;Jongman et al, 2014;Prudhomme et al, 2014;Sheffield and Wood, 2008;van Huijgevoort et al, 2014;Wanders and van Lanen, 2015;Wanders and Wada, 2015b); however, human water management is found to be an important factor affecting regional water supply and hydrological variability (Wada et al, 2013a, b;Di Baldassarre et al, 2017). Recent studies explicitly model human interventions (e.g.…”

“…drought and flood events) and water scarcity have become more severe over the last decades in multiple regions across the world (Hisdal et al, 2001;Lins et al, 1999;Stahl et al, 2010;Jongman et al, 2012;Di Baldassarre et al, 2017), which has led to substantial societal and economic impacts Wilhite et al, 2007). Many large-scale studies focus on drought and (Hanasaki et al, 2008a, b), PCR-GLOBWB Wada et al, 2014, WADMOD-M (Widén- Nilsson et al, 2007), WaterGAP (Alcamo et al, 2003a, b;Döll et al, 2003), WBMplus (Vörösmarty et al, 2000;Wisser et al, 2010) Land surface models (LSMs)…”