Drought area monitoring during the past three decades in Fars province, Iran

Nafarzadegan, Ali Reza; Zadeh, Mehdi Rezaeian; Kherad, Mehrzad; Ahani, Hossein; Gharehkhani, A.; karampoor, mostafa; Kousari, Mohammad Reza

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.12.009

Cited by 44 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Then, the aggregated precipitation data for each calendar‐end month follows an individual probability distribution function, which is subsequently transformed to a standard normal distribution. This transformation makes the SPI comparable over temporal and spatial scales and has been widely applied to capture different aspects of droughts (Liu et al, ; McKee et al, ; Nafarzadegan et al, ). Because of the ability to investigate drought severity at different time scales, the SPI is indispensable for quantifying variations in the hydrological response to meteorological droughts (Vicente‐Serrano & Lopez‐Moreno, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on the Loess Plateau, China: Evolutionary Characteristics, Impact, and Propagation

et al. 2018

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Drought is the most recurrent and destructive hazard in arid and semiarid regions and will only become more complex under climate change. It is vital to characterize the various types of drought, to investigate the potential factors affecting different types of drought, and to assess the relationship between drought types. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Runoff Index were used to characterize meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively, to investigate drought characteristics and mechanisms in 17 catchments on the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2013. Furthermore, the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought was explored and the potential factors influencing drought propagation time were investigated. The results indicate that the Loess Plateau has experienced an increased tendency toward both meteorological and hydrological droughts over the period 1961-2013, with hydrological drought more serious than meteorological drought at various drought assessment time scales. Moreover, average drought duration and severity were greater for hydrological drought than meteorological drought. Maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) was the dominant extreme climate index for explaining variance in meteorological drought at the annual time scale. Owing to the greater complexity underlying hydrological drought, Rx5day, the number of warm days (Tx90p), and the number of warm nights (Tn90p) all contribute to the variance in hydrological drought. Furthermore, the percentage of forested land had a significant positive association (p < 0.001) with propagation time, whereas the percentage of land given over to pasture had a significant negative association (p < 0.001) with propagation time. Key Points:• Loess Plateau has experienced an increased tendency toward both meteorological and hydrological droughts over the period 1961-2013 • Average drought duration and severity were greater for hydrological drought than meteorological drought • Changes in land use and land cover can alter the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought Supporting Information:• Supporting Information S1 Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresWU ET AL. 11,581 catchments) and summer (1-3 months) were shorter than in the autumn (1-6 months in northwestern catchments and more than 12 months in the remain regions) and winter (1-4 months in the western and central region and more than 10 months in the remaining regions).

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on the Loess Plateau, China: Evolutionary Characteristics, Impact, and Propagation

et al. 2018

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“…The study area is in the Fars Province (SE Iran) between 27° 2′ to 31° 42′ N latitudes and 50° 42′ to 55° 36′ E longitudes, with an area of approximately 133,400 km 2 of mainly arid and semi-arid land 27 . It covers 8.1% of Iran and includes 26 cities (Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing and mapping multi-hazard risk susceptibility using a machine learning technique

Pourghasemi

Kariminejad

Amiri

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

168

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the aim of the current study was to suggest a multi-hazard probability assessment in fars province, Shiraz City, and its four strategic watersheds. At first, we construct maps depicting the most effective factors on floods (12 factors), forest fires (10 factors), and landslides (10 factors), and used the Boruta algorithm to prioritize the impact of each respective factor on the occurrence of each hazard. Subsequently, flood, landslides, and forest fire susceptibility maps prepared using a Random Forest (RF) model in the R statistical software. Results indicate that 42.83% of the study area are not susceptible to any hazards, while 2.67% of the area is at risk of all three hazards. The results of the multi-hazard map in Shiraz City indicate that 25% of Shiraz city is very susceptible to flooding, while 16% is very susceptible to landslide occurrences. for four strategic watersheds, it is notable that in the Dorodzan Watershed, landslides and floods are the most important hazards; whereas, flood occurrences cover the largest area of the Maharlou Watershed. In contrast, the Tashk-Bakhtegan Watershed is so sensible to floods and landslides, respectively. Finally, in the Ghareaghaj Watershed, forest fire ranks as the strongest hazard, followed by floods. The validation results indicate an AUC of 0.834, 0.939, and 0.943 for the flood, landslide, and forest fire susceptibility maps, respectively. Also, other accuracy measures including, specificity, sensitivity, TSS, CCI, and Gini coefficient confirmed results of the AUC values. These results allow us to forecast the spatial behavior of such multi-hazard events, and researchers and stakeholders alike can apply them to evaluate hazards under various mitigation scenarios.The Sendai Framework, with its comprehensive vision, recommends more efforts to decrease disaster risk and increase sustainable development. Especially communities who are increasingly susceptible to natural hazards should adhere to these guidelines and plan accordingly. In this regard, the multi-hazard approach is often used in risk reduction projects and studies addressing risks associated with human activities or climate change on a regional and local scale 1 . It is obvious that introducing a universal set of multi-hazard assessment techniques is of fundamental importance for reducing disaster risk, and constitutes a valuable asset to share with other stakeholders, including the private sectors, local governments, and other stakeholders.The use of the term multi-hazard in the current research is related to the objective of risk reduction among natural hazards, including flood, landslides, and forest fires, in a specified spatial distribution in this study 2,3 . Recently, susceptibility modeling approaches related to single processes have advanced considerably for river floods 4 and landslides 5-7 . However, there is still neither a common terminology nor a uniform conceptual approach for analyzing multiple hazards in conjunction. This is not unexpected because multi-hazard analyses are not the sum of ...

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“…The SPI and NPI calculation is based only on precipitation deficiency and does not consider other critical variables that may affect drought condition. Due to its robustness and convenience in application, SPI has already been widely used to characterize dry/wet conditions all over the world [17][18][19]. Moreover, it was recommended for meteorological dryness estimation in a recent meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [20].…”

Section: Advances In Meteorologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Variability and Implications of Meteorological Dry/Wet Conditions in the Poyang Lake Catchment, China, during the Period 1960–2010

et al. 2015

Advances in Meteorology

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This paper presents a quantitative investigation of the variability of meteorological dry/wet conditions of the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960-2010 by using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on daily observations of 14 meteorological stations across the catchment. Extending from previous studies, the background of the encounter and overlap of multitimescales of meteorological dry/wet episodes for several severe drought and flood events were discussed. In addition, the possible impacts of temperature changes on dry/wet variability were also examined by the comparison of SPEI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) variations at multitimescales during the study period. Major results show that the occurrence of dry/wet condition has become increasingly frequent in the recent two decades, especially the extreme wet episodes in 1990s and the extreme dry episodes in 2000s. Historically, the encounter and overlap of multitimescales of meteorological dry/wet episodes plays an important role in the occurrence of several severe drought and flood events. The study concluded that the impact of temperature anomaly to the dry/wet variability cannot be neglected.

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Drought area monitoring during the past three decades in Fars province, Iran

Cited by 44 publications

References 19 publications

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on the Loess Plateau, China: Evolutionary Characteristics, Impact, and Propagation

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought on the Loess Plateau, China: Evolutionary Characteristics, Impact, and Propagation

Assessing and mapping multi-hazard risk susceptibility using a machine learning technique

Investigation of the Variability and Implications of Meteorological Dry/Wet Conditions in the Poyang Lake Catchment, China, during the Period 1960–2010

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