Drought evolution and its impact on the crop yield in the North China Plain

Liu, Xianfeng; Pan, Yaozhong; Zhu, Xiufang; Yang, Tiantian; Bai, Jianjun; Sun, Zhangli

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.077

Cited by 141 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Further, the maximum correlation coefficient between the SPEI-03 and SYRS of summer maize was recorded in August, corresponding to the silking stage of summer maize. This finding is consistent with the conclusion reached by Liu et al (2018) [33] in the North China Plain. Figure 6.…”

Section: Response Of Crop Yield To Different Timescales Of Droughtsupporting

confidence: 94%

“…In general, the SPEI values at shorter timescales (e.g., one-month and three-month) reflect the short-term moisture conditions and often has a good correlation with soil moisture; while the SPEI values at longer timescales (e.g., six-month and 12-month) reflect the medium-and long-term water balance patterns and are usually correlated to river flows, reservoir storages, and groundwater levels [23]. In practice, the SPEI-03 is commonly used to characterize agricultural droughts since it is more correlated with soil moisture than other timescales of SPEI [19,32,33]. Table 1 provides a categorization of drought severity according to the SPEI, where the more negative the SPEI value corresponds to the more severe the drought.…”

Section: Calculation Of Spei and Syrsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Droughts and the Assessments of Agricultural Drought Risk in a Typical Agricultural Province of China

Guo

Wang

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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Drought is one of the most common natural disasters on a global scale and has a wide range of socioeconomic impacts. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological drought in a typical agricultural province of China (i.e., Shaanxi Province) based on the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We also investigated the response of winter wheat and summer maize yields to drought by a correlation analysis between the detrended SPEI and the time series of yield anomaly during the crop growing season. Moreover, agricultural drought risks were assessed across the province using a conceptual risk assessment model that emphasizes the combined role of drought hazard and vulnerability. The results indicated that droughts have become more severe and frequent in the study area after 1995. The four typical timescales of SPEI showed a consistent decreasing trend during the period 1960–2016; the central plains of the province showed the most significant decreasing trend, where is the main producing area of the province’s grain. Furthermore, the frequency and intensity of drought increased significantly after 1995; the most severe drought episodes occurred in 2015–2016. Our results also showed that the sensitivity of crop yield to drought varies with the timescales of droughts. Droughts at six-month timescales that occurred in March can explain the yield losses for winter wheat to the greatest extent, while the yield losses of summer maize are more sensitive to droughts at three-month timescales that occurred in August. The assessment agricultural drought risk showed that some areas in the north of the province are exposed to a higher risk of drought and other regions are dominated by low risk.

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Section: Response Of Crop Yield To Different Timescales Of Droughtsupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Calculation Of Spei and Syrsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Droughts and the Assessments of Agricultural Drought Risk in a Typical Agricultural Province of China

Guo

Wang

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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“…The response of vegetation to climate change is the focus of many studies, especially for areas prone to drought and the associated moisture deficit, where warming and stable or even decreasing precipitation can lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts [1][2][3]. The most at risk are regions where the rate of temperature increase exceeds global trends (e.g., temperate latitudes in continental Asia-Central Asia, Mongolia, North China, and South Siberia) [4][5][6][7][8][9]. For example, Liu et al [10] reported that warming and droughts reduced growth and increased mortality for both conifers and angiosperms, driving the eventual regional loss of many semi-arid forests in these regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Four Tree Species to Changing Climate in a Moisture-Limited Area of South Siberia

Babushkina

Zhirnova

Belokopytova

et al. 2019

Forests

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The response of vegetation to climate change is of special interest in regions where rapid warming is coupled with moisture deficit. This raises the question of the limits in plants' acclimation ability and the consequent shifts of the vegetation cover. Radial growth dynamics and climatic response were studied in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in the forest-steppe, and for Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila L.) in the steppe of South Siberia, as indicators of vegetation state and dynamics. Climate-growth relationships were analyzed by the following two approaches: (1) correlations between tree-ring width chronologies and short-term moving climatic series, and (2) optimization of the parameters of the Vaganov-Shashkin tree growth simulation model to assess the ecophysiological characteristics of species. Regional warming was accompanied by a slower increase of the average moisture deficit, but not in the severity of droughts. In the forest-steppe, the trees demonstrated stable growth and responded to the May-July climate. In the steppe, elm was limited by moisture deficit in May-beginning of June, during the peak water deficit. The forest-steppe stands were apparently acclimated successfully to the current climatic trends. It seems that elm was able to counter the water deficit, likely through its capacity to regulate transpiration by the stomatal morphology and xylem structure, using most of the stem as a water reservoir; earlier onset; and high growth rate, and these physiological traits may provide advantages to this species, leading to its expansion in steppes.

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“…irrigation price in the north counties such as Tangshan, Cangzhou, and Shijiazhuang were more than three times higher than that of Zhoukou, Shangqiu, and Zhangzhou in the south. As a result, the sown area and total production of winter wheat decreased sharply in the northern NCP, due to that many farmers have reduced irrigation times and water amount [11,20,47]. In southern regions, water resources were sufficient to raise winter wheat production.…”

Section: Agricultural Irrigation Policiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, the groundwater resources were depleted increasingly since 1960s, due to the agricultural development. The contradiction of grain production increase and groundwater resources decrease in the NCP has always been a policy concern in China [10,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain

Zhang

2019

Sustainability

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The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important winter wheat production region and an area of water shortage in China. The stability of winter wheat (T. aestivum L.) production in spatial pattern and the sustainability of water resources have been a major policy concern in China. This study explored the barycenter shift and change trends of wheat total production during 1998–2015, using methods of barycenter model, Sen’s slope, and Mann Kendall test, and analyzed the influence of external factors and the response of water resources. Results indicated that the barycenter of wheat production moved southwards by 115.16 km during 1998–2015, with an average speed of 6.77 km/year. For the entire NCP, the total production showed phased changes during the study period: It decreased during 1998–2003, and then continuously increased during 2004–2015. Of the wheat production increase in the NCP, yield increase and sown area expansion averagely contributed 64.5% and 35.5%, respectively, and the contribution proportion of yield increase continuously increased since 2003. At county level, total wheat production showed a significant increase and decrease trend in 87 and 29 counties, mainly distributed in the southern and northern NCP, respectively. The increase of total production at county level was mainly contributed by yield growth in the southern NCP, while the decrease in the north was due to the reduction of sown area to great extent. The southward shift was jointly resulted by the spatial variation of input factors, benefit, and water prices. These spatial pattern changes alleviated the water pressure in the north region to some extent, in the case of ensuring the production increase of winter wheat. Therefore, the current spatial shift should be continuously promoted in the future.

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Drought evolution and its impact on the crop yield in the North China Plain

Cited by 141 publications

References 51 publications

Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Droughts and the Assessments of Agricultural Drought Risk in a Typical Agricultural Province of China

Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Droughts and the Assessments of Agricultural Drought Risk in a Typical Agricultural Province of China

Response of Four Tree Species to Changing Climate in a Moisture-Limited Area of South Siberia

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change of Winter Wheat Production and Its Implications in the North China Plain

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