Drought Impacts on Hydropower Capacity Over the Yangtze River Basin and Their Future Projections under 1.5/2°C Warming Scenarios

Wang, Yu; Li, Huixin; Sun, Bо; Chen, Huopo; Li, Hua; Luo, Yinxue

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.578132

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Yu et al (2022) analysed the evolution of meteorological drought identified by SPI at multiple time scales in the YZB based on projections from 19 CMIP6 models and found that the YZB would become wetter but the variability would increase in the future, resulting in more severe drought events. Wang et al (2020) also found that the meteorological drought frequency and severity identified by SPEI would increase under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios. Wang et al (2022b) investigated the future changes in hydroclimatic extremes in the upper Yangtze River basin and showed that agricultural drought severity would increase and the unusual agricultural droughts in the historical period would occur frequently in the future.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Feng

Yuan

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is critical for better understanding hydrological drought. However, how climate change would affect the drought propagation has not been well studied, especially over regions mixed with massive human interventions. The study attempts to explore changes in the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the corresponding drought propagation under different climate change scenarios across six watersheds over the Yangtze River basin (YZB). Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts were characterized by using standardized precipitation and streamflow index at 3‐month scales (SPI‐3 and SSI‐3), which were calculated using precipitation simulations from 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models and streamflow simulations from PCR‐GLOBWB 2.0 hydrological model driven by CMIP6 outputs. Drought propagation characteristics, including propagation ratio, lag and lengthening, were then determined. Both meteorological and hydrological drought durations would shorten, while their drought severity would increase excluding a downstream watershed. About 40%–50% of meteorological droughts could develop into hydrological droughts, with lag time less than 1.4 months and lengthening time less than 1.8 months, respectively. Under climate warming, the drought propagation ratio would increase over two watersheds, while decrease and then increase over three watersheds. The drought propagation lag time is expected to prolong over the regions above Cuntan under moderate emission scenario, while prolong first and then shorten over most watersheds under high‐emission scenario. The drought propagation lengthening time would shorten over most watersheds excluding a downstream watershed, where drought conditions would further worsen during drought propagation. This study calls for climate mitigation efforts to suppress drought aggravation in the propagation particularly for the downstream YZB.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Feng

Yuan

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…SPEI is useful for identifying how variations in wet and dry conditions affect vegetation (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2010). To study the dry and wet fluctuations in the YRB, SPEI is typically utilized as the drought index (Wang et al, 2020). The SPEI dataset (Global SPEI database) we used has a spatiotemporal resolution of 0.5 °and monthly scales (Beguería et al, 2010;Beguería et al, 2014).…”

Section: Drought Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

The quantitative effects of climate change and human activity on the vegetation growth in the Yangtze River Basin

Guo,

Cai,

Chen

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Vegetation has changed dramatically in recent years as a result of various disturbances, but the factors influencing vegetation growth vary geographically. We looked into the impact of climate change and human activity on vegetation growth in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). We characterized vegetation growth in the YRB using gross primary production (GPP) and the leaf area index (LAI), analyzed the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and quantified the relative contribution rate of climate change and human activity to vegetation growth in the YRB by using residual trend method. The findings revealed that: 1) From 2000 to 2018, the YRB showed an increasing trend of temperature (0.03°C yr−1) and precipitation (4.02 mm yr−1) and that the entire area was gradually becoming warmer and wetter; 2) Vegetation growth in the YRB showed a significant increasing trend (GPP: 7.83 g C m−2 yr−2, LAI: 0.02 years‐1). Among them, 87.40% of the YRB showed an increasing trend, primarily in the northern, eastern, and southern parts, while decreasing areas were primarily found in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the YRB’s west region. 3) Vegetation had a significant positive correlation with SPEI in most areas of the YRB, and it was more sensitive to SPEI over a long time scale. The effects of climate change and human activity on vegetation growth in the YRB were spatially heterogeneous, and climate change was the primary driving factors of vegetation change in the YRB (accounting for 61.28%). A large number of grass were converted into forest, crop and urban. Overall, climate change and human activity promoted the growth of vegetation in the middle and upper reaches of YRB (MUYRB) while inhibited the growth of vegetation in the YRD. The findings of this study will contribute to a better understanding of the effects of climate change and human activity on vegetation growth in the YRB, as well as provide a scientific foundation for future ecological restoration in humid and semi-humid areas.

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“…Of the countries with high hydropower generation (Figure 4), Brazil and China have the greatest exposure to extreme drought. China generates the most hydropower globally and historical hydropower output has been highly correlated with drought conditions (Wang et al 2020). On average with each 0.5 • C GMST increase, an additional 15 000 MW or 5.6% of China's hydroelectric generating capacity is exposed to p ext ⩾ 50%.…”

Section: Hydroelectric Exposurementioning

confidence: 99%

Human and natural resource exposure to extreme drought at 1.0 °C–4.0 °C warming levels

Runde

Zobel

Schwalm

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Extreme drought occurs on every continent, negatively impacting natural systems and the built environment. Realized and anticipated future warming affects global hydrology, influencing the severity and frequency of both extreme precipitation events and precipitation deficits. Understanding future drought conditions is essential for risk aware water management strategies and to protect food security for a growing human population, while safeguarding natural capital critical to limiting further warming. Here we quantify socioeconomic and ecological exposure to extreme drought. We focus on global, regional, and national scales at increasing levels of climate warming, from today’s 1.0 °C world to 4.0 °C of warming. Drought is quantified using the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index calculated from globally mosaiced regional climate simulation (REMO2015). Exposure to extreme drought increases monotonically with warming level. For every 0.5 °C warming increase up to 3.0 °C, an additional 619 million people live in areas with 25% likelihood of annual extreme drought, in addition to the 1.7 billion people (25% of 2020 global population) exposed in today’s 1.0 °C world. Spatially, global drying is amplified in the tropics, where drought frequency increases at twice the global rate. Per 0.5 °C increase in warming, extreme drought annual likelihoods increase 1.5 times greater in forested than non-forested areas, jeopardizing climate regulation associated with forested biomes. Cropland exposure to 50% likelihood of annual extreme drought in two of the highest producing countries, China and Brazil, increases 4× and 13× between 1.0 °C and 2.0 °C, spanning a third of national cropland by 3.0 °C. At 1.5 °C (4.0 °C), 16% (39%) of global hydroelectric generating capacity will be exposed to at least a 50% likelihood of annual extreme drought, up from 5% in today’s 1.0 °C world. Given the near-term likelihood of surpassing 1.5 °C, high resolution drought exposure assessments must inform risk aware development and resilience efforts.

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Drought Impacts on Hydropower Capacity Over the Yangtze River Basin and Their Future Projections under 1.5/2°C Warming Scenarios

Cited by 5 publications

References 50 publications

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming

The quantitative effects of climate change and human activity on the vegetation growth in the Yangtze River Basin

Human and natural resource exposure to extreme drought at 1.0 °C–4.0 °C warming levels

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