Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

Park, Chang-Kyun; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Lee, Bora

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.043

Cited by 48 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Four RCPs have been developed (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) by the IPCC. Under the RCP8.5, the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario, the radiation forcing is approximately 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 [40,41]. The RCP4.5 scenario predicts the forcing to be approximately 4.5 W/m 2 in 2100.…”

Section: Construction Of Climate Scenarios Description Of Climate Chamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This research investigated the effect of climate change on the two main river basins of Senegal in West Africa: the Senegal and Gambia River Basins. We used downscaled projected future rainfall and potential evapotranspiration based on projected temperature from six General Circulation Models (CanESM2, CNRM, CSIRO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to force the GR4J model. The GR4J model was calibrated and validated using observed daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration from observed daily temperature, and streamflow data. For the cross-validation, two periods for each river basin were considered: 1961-1982 and 1983-2004 for the Senegal River Basin at Bafing Makana, and 1969Makana, and -1985Makana, and and 1986Makana, and -2000 for the Gambia River Basin at Mako. Model efficiency is evaluated using a multi-criteria function (F agg ) which aggregates Nash and Sutcliffe criteria, cumulative volume error, and mean volume error. Alternating periods of simulation for calibration and validation were used. This process allows us to choose the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relationship. Once the model was calibrated and validated, we simulated streamflow at Bafing Makana and Mako stations in the near future at a daily scale. The characteristic flow rates were calculated to evaluate their possible evolution under the projected climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. For the near future (2050 horizon), compared to the 1971-2000 reference period, results showed that for both river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a decrease of annual streamflow from 8% (Senegal River Basin) to 22% (Gambia River Basin) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease is more pronounced: 16% (Senegal River Basin) and 26% (Gambia River Basin). The Gambia River Basin will be more affected by the climate change.

show abstract

Section: Construction Of Climate Scenarios Description Of Climate Chamentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Given the extensive serious impacts of drought, understanding its causes in the past and projecting future drought conditions is an important task in drought studies, and has been well received in the literature. Many recent studies have employed various drought indices and have assessed trends in drought duration or severity (Dubrovský et al, 2014;Park et al, 2014;Yu et al, 2014;Duffy et al, 2015;Madhu et al, 2015;Swain and Hayhoe, 2015), investigated the relationship of drought and climate teleconnections (Kam et al, 2014;Huang et al, 2015;Meque and Abiodun, 2015;Ujeneza and Abiodun, 2015), or evaluated the causes of a particular drought event (Griffin and Anchukaitis, 2014;Diffenbaugh et al, 2015;Mao et al, 2015;Seager et al, 2015;Williams et al, 2015;Otkin et al, 2016). Improvements in accuracy and spatial resolution of datasets as well as greater availability and accessibility to ensembles of models with more realistic physical assumptions, allows for a better assessment of drought attributes in different regions while also characterizing the uncertainty of drought projections (Barnston and Lyon, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA‐NEX downscaled climate ensemble

Ahmadalipour

Moradkhani

Svoboda

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drought is a natural hazard developing slowly and affecting large areas which may have severe consequences on society and economy. Due to the effects of climate change, drought is expected to exacerbate in various regions in future. In this study, the impact of climate change on drought characteristics is assessed, and statistical methods are employed to analyse the significance of projections. This is the first study utilizing 21 recently available downscaled global climate models generated by NASA (NEX‐GDDP) to evaluate drought projections over various regions across the United States. Drought is investigated through a multi‐model dual‐index dual‐scenario approach to probabilistically analyse drought attributes while characterizing the uncertainty in future drought projections. Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values at the seasonal scale (3 months) are used to project and analyse meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2099 at 0.25° spatial resolution. Two future concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered for this analysis. Accounting for the combined effects of precipitation and temperature variations reveals a considerable aggravation in severity and extent of future drought in the western United States and a tendency toward more frequent and intense summer droughts across the Contiguous United States.

show abstract

“…For the past period from 1979 to 2005, although the intra-decadal LCD variability is somewhat different from the observations as seen in Fig 2, the mean value is almost the same as for 296.5 DOY. Considering it is impossible to perfectly replicate the real environment in climate models, researchers commonly focused on climatological agreement between observations and model simulations to ensure the reliability of future predictions [45, 46, 47]. In this respect, the about one-day difference in the LCD between observations and model predictions suggest that the projections for future LCD are reliable.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature increases in South Korea

Park

Jeong

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding shifts in autumn phenology associated with climate changes is critical for preserving forest ecosystems. This study examines the changes in the leaf coloring date (LCD) of two temperate deciduous tree species, Acer palmatum (Acer) and Ginkgo biloba (Ginkgo), in response to surface air temperature (Ts) changes at 54 stations of South Korea for the period 1989–2007. The variations of Acer and Ginkgo in South Korea are very similar: they show the same mean LCD of 295th day of the year and delays of about 0.45 days year-1 during the observation period. The delaying trend is closely correlated (correlation coefficient > 0.77) with increases in Ts in mid-autumn by 2.8 days °C-1. It is noted that the LCD delaying and temperature sensitivity (days °C-1) for both tree species show negligible dependences on latitudes and elevations. Given the significant LCD-Ts relation, we project LCD changes for 2016–35 and 2046–65 using a process-based model forced by temperature from climate model simulation. The projections indicate that the mean LCD would be further delayed by 3.2 (3.7) days in 2016–35 (2046–65) due to mid-autumn Ts increases. This study suggests that the mid-autumn warming is largely responsible for the observed LCD changes in South Korea and will intensify the delaying trends in the future.

show abstract

Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

Cited by 48 publications

References 36 publications

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA‐NEX downscaled climate ensemble

Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature increases in South Korea

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About