Drought-related variables over the Bârlad basin (Eastern Romania) under climate change scenarios

Dascălu, Sorin Ionuţ; Gothard, Mădălina; Bojariu, Roxana; Bîrsan, Marius-Victor; Cica, Roxana; Vintilă, Ruxandra; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Chendes, V.; Mic, Rodica Paula

doi:10.1016/j.catena.2016.02.018

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…In our approach, we define the local water cycle components (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and potential runoff) based on the two-level model of the soil exploit by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) [14], like in the approach presented in [2]. The top layer of soil is assumed to hold 25.4 mm of moisture.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This ERA-NET is an integral part of the 2015 Joint Activities developed by the Water Challenges for a Changing World Joint Programme Initiative (Water JPI). The description of Palmer Drought Severity Index presented in the first part of the Methodology section is taken from our work published in the reference [2]. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modeling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5.…”

Section: Acknowledgementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, few studies have documented water cycle-related changes at the river basin level based on the new regional climate modeling results in South Eastern Europe. A detailed analysis of future climate change projections exists for the Bârlad basin [2], considering the scenarios elaborated within the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1]. The results presented in [2] show that, under the climate change, the tendency toward more severe summer droughts is a significant feature of the Bârlad basin in the long run, despite the uncertainties related to global and regional models, parametrization of potential evapotranspiration in the Palmer model, and the soil data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A detailed analysis of future climate change projections exists for the Bârlad basin [2], considering the scenarios elaborated within the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1]. The results presented in [2] show that, under the climate change, the tendency toward more severe summer droughts is a significant feature of the Bârlad basin in the long run, despite the uncertainties related to global and regional models, parametrization of potential evapotranspiration in the Palmer model, and the soil data. This tendency seems to be a result of a basin-wide decrease in the precipitation and increase in the potential evaporation, which have been also identified as causes for the summer time drying in mid-latitudes in the CMIP 3 model results [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variability and Change in Water Cycle at the Catchment Level

Bojariu¹,

Dascălu²,

Gothard³

et al. 2018

Engineering and Mathematical Topics in Rainfall

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This study proposes a simple methodology for assessing future-projected evolution of water cycle components (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and potential runoff) based on the two-level Palmer model of the soil and their impact on drought conditions at basin level. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used as drought metric. The catchments of rivers Arges, Mures, Prut, Siret and Somes (mid-and lower Danube basin) have been chosen as case studies. The present climate data consist of Romanian gridded dataset, monthly precipitation and values of streamflow from Romania and Republic of Moldova and potential evapotranspiration-related data from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia). We used as future projections five numerical experiments with regional models obtained through the EURO-CORDEX initiative, under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. The correlations between observed streamflow at the river basin outlets and PDSI-related components of the water cycle show that PDSI represents reasonably well processes taking place in the selected catchments. Depending on the specific scenario and catchment, droughts that in the Palmer classification were deemed as incipient, mild or severe under present climate will become a normal summer feature toward the end of this century, especially over catchments situated in the lower Danube basin.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Acknowledgementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Variability and Change in Water Cycle at the Catchment Level

Bojariu¹,

Dascălu²,

Gothard³

et al. 2018

Engineering and Mathematical Topics in Rainfall

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“…Long-term climatic variability over Romania are well documented in various recent papers, pointing to an increase in drought and aridity (Cheval et al, 2014a(Cheval et al, , b, 2017Dascălu et al, 2016) and in annual warm-related temperature extremes (e.g., Dobrinescu et al, 2015;Marin et al, 2014;Rimbu et al, 2015). Changes since 1961 show increasing temperatures in all seasons except autumn , an increasing rain shower frequency (Busuioc et al, 2016;Manea et al, 2016), decreasing trends in snow depth and in wind speed (Birsan et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

A Romanian daily high-resolution gridded dataset of snow depth (2005-2015)

Dumitrescu¹,

Bîrsan²,

Niţă³

2017

Geofizika

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This study presents the spatial interpolation procedure from snow depth measurements at weather stations implying the following stages: (1) Spatial interpolation at 1 km × 1 km resolution of the mean multiannual values (2005-2015) corresponding to each month, computed from the data extracted from the climatological database; (2) Computation of the daily deviations against the multiannual monthly mean for every day and year over 2005-2015 and their spatial interpolation; (3) Spatio-temporal datasets were obtained through merging the two surfaces obtained in stages 1 and 2. The anomalies were considered to be the ratio between the daily snow depth values and the climatology. The spatial variability of the data used in the first stage was accounted for through the use of a series of predictors derived from the digital elevation model (DEM). To plot the maps with the climatological normals (multiannual means), the Regression-Kriging (RK) spatial interpolation method was used. In order to choose the optimum method applied in spatializing deviations, four interpolation methods were tested using a cross-validation procedure: Multiquadratic, Ordinary Kriging (separated and pooled variograms) and 3d Kriging.

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Projected spatial patterns in precipitation and air temperature for China's northwest region derived from high‐resolution regional climate models

Yin

Feng

Deo

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Derived from realistic global warming scenarios, long‐term projections of spatial patterns in precipitation and temperature in hydrology and climatology can serve to evaluate climate risk, explore sources of renewable energies and allow local‐scale data to inform decisions regarding agricultural, ecosystem, social, recreational and economic activities. Under the CORDEX‐EA project, the precipitation and temperature projections (2020–2045) for the economically and socially important region of Northwestern China were derived from high‐resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, and compared against a historical period or baseline of 1980–2005. Drawing data from four key RCMs [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF); Regional Spectral Model (RSM); Regional Climate Model version 4.0 (RegCM4); Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5)], reliable local‐scale projections were generated by applying suitable bias correction that accords with the multivariate bias correction (MBC) approach. To validate this approach and then evaluate climate change impacts, the adjusted precipitation and temperature estimated from bias‐corrected models for the historical period were compared to the observed data. The results showed that the simulated spatiotemporal distribution of multiyear average precipitation and temperature appear to fit relatively well with the observations, however, the wet‐cold and dry‐warm climate‐related biases were still evident for the high altitude regions. Bias‐corrected future projections of RCMs indicated spatially averaged annual precipitation is expected to rise by about 23.6 and 35.3 mm under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while spatially averaged annual temperature is expected to rise by about 1.95 and 1.10°C. Precipitation is projected to increase in all seasons, albeit, more so in the cold season (i.e., boreal winter and spring) than the warm season (i.e., boreal summer and autumn). The annual increase is expected to be about 56.7% under the RCP 4.5 scenario, compared to 67.6% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The changes of mean temperature in winter are expected to be significant, −37.8% under both RCP scenarios. For spring, the mean temperature will rise by 23.1% (28.9%) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. A MBC approach was found to be effective in yielding reliable projected changes in precipitation and temperature variables. The proposed approach has important implications for climatological studies and evaluation of climate change impacts on localized regions, not only in China, but also in other similar areas of the world, where decisions for managing climate risk must be implemented by policy makers, government, industry and stakeholders.

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Drought-related variables over the Bârlad basin (Eastern Romania) under climate change scenarios

Cited by 18 publications

References 18 publications

Variability and Change in Water Cycle at the Catchment Level

Variability and Change in Water Cycle at the Catchment Level

A Romanian daily high-resolution gridded dataset of snow depth (2005-2015)

Projected spatial patterns in precipitation and air temperature for China's northwest region derived from high‐resolution regional climate models

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