Drought risk assessment in Mediterranean agricultural watersheds: A case study in Central Italy

Villani, Lorenzo; Castelli, Giulio; Piemontese, Luigi; Penna, Daniele; Bresci, Elena

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107748

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…To evaluate the regional integrated disaster reduction capacity and determine the current state of agricultural disaster reduction in each region, the three disaster reduction indicators of emergency management capacity, resource security capacity, and degree of agricultural modernization are used. (5) Based on the results of the risk assessment for drought disasters, construct an integrated risk prevention model for agricultural disasters in the key grainproducing districts of Jilin Province and offer suggestions for the sustainable development of local agriculture.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, agricultural disaster risk assessment has been carried out in various regions. Villani et al presented a complete drought risk assessment methodology, applied to the agricultural systems of five Italian coastal watersheds, introducing a simple robustness evaluation method to validate the assessment tool and archetype analysis to link the outputs with adaptation strategies [5]. Liu et al used an integrated multi-indicator evaluation combined with an entropic information diffusion model to assess the risk of agricultural droughts and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and proposed relevant policy suggestions based on the assessment results [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrated Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of Jilin Province, China

Zhang

Wang

Chen

et al. 2023

Land

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The impact of global climate change has intensified, and the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters has posed a serious challenge to crop production. This article conducts an integrated risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters in the main grain-producing areas of Jilin Province using the temperature and precipitation data of the study area from 1955 to 2020, the sown area of crops, historical disaster data, regional remote sensing images, and statistical yearbook data. The agricultural drought integrated risk assessment model was built around four factors: drought hazards, vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies, sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environments, and stability of disaster mitigation capacity. The results show that the study area has shown a trend of changing from wet to dry and then wet over the past 66 years, with the occasional occurrence of severe drought, and a decreasing trend at a rate of −0.089. (10a)−1 overall. The integrated risk of drought in the study area exhibits regional clustering, and the overall risk level has some relationship spatially with the regional geological tectonic units, with the high-risk level concentrated in the central area of Song Liao Basin and close to the geological structure of Yishu Graben and the low risk level concentrated in the marginal area of Song Liao Basin. Based on the results of the risk factor analysis, integrated risk prevention suggestions for drought in the main grain-producing areas of Jilin Province were put forward from four aspects. Fine identification and evaluation of high-risk areas of agricultural drought can provide a quantitative basis for effective drought resistance activities in relevant areas.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of Jilin Province, China

Zhang

Wang

Chen

et al. 2023

Land

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“…The vulnerability index can be obtained by assigning weights to each standardized indicator (Kim et al, 2021; Meza et al, 2021; Prabnakorn et al, 2019; Villani et al, 2022). In this study, two vulnerability indicators of croplands were given the same weight by assuming that each indicator contributed equally to the overall vulnerability index (i.e., the average of the two vulnerability indicators).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems

Zhang,

Hao,

Jiang

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Owing to their potentially amplified impacts, compound dry‐hot events (CDHEs) can pose serious risk to human life and ecosystems. However, studies have mainly assessed the risk related to CDHEs from the hazard or exposure perspective, while a system risk assessment incorporating the hazard, exposure and vulnerability at the global scale is lacking. This study assessed the risk from CDHEs based on model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models for different future periods, including near term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100) periods, under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Using cropland and population as exposure indicators, the risk from CDHEs to human and agricultural systems was investigated by combing the hazard (the frequency or duration of CDHEs) and vulnerability indicators (GDP and irrigation fraction). Results showed a widespread increase in the risk to human and agricultural systems (represented by the populations and cropland) under the two scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) across the globe, particularly in North America, Europe, Africa and Oceania for population and northern South America, large parts of Europe, and southeast China for cropland. The median values of relative changes in risk to human (cropland) systems were 136%, 213% and 207% (102%, 161% and 225%) for the near term, mid‐term and long term, respectively. The increase in hazards was shown to primarily contribute to the increased population risk. This study may provide useful insights for future risk management of compound extremes in human and agricultural systems.

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“…Table 1 Description of Land Cover Dynamic Trajectories clustering to identify archetypes of land cover change using the proportions of trajectories within each provincial administration. Identifying archetypes of land cover changes can reveal the differences in systemic risks faced by different regions (Villani et al, 2022). The hierarchical clustering can cluster dense datasets of any shape and is not sensitive to outliers in the dataset (Murtagh & Contreras, 2012).…”

Section: Edmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Diversity Conflicts of Future Land System Pathways in China Under Anthropogenic and Climate Forcing

Lin,

Jiao,

Tian

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Predicting future land system changes driven by anthropogenic and climactic impacts can help to explore adaptation and mitigation pathways for regional and global sustainable development. Here, we project land cover changes in China from 2030 to 2100 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km under eight scenarios based on the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenraioMIP), which are extracted from Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2). We use a rule‐based method to classify and map 9 land cover dynamic trajectories at patch scale to present land system changes. At the provincial scale we used hierarchical clustering to identify archetypes of land cover change, which can predict ecological risks for future management in western provinces. Our results reveal that anthropogenic mitigation policies under high mitigation pressure do not result in positive impacts on the land system, but rising temperatures will provide a great opportunity for ecological restoration in some regions.

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Drought risk assessment in Mediterranean agricultural watersheds: A case study in Central Italy

Cited by 25 publications

References 58 publications

Integrated Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of Jilin Province, China

Integrated Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of Jilin Province, China

Global warming increases risk from compound dry‐hot events to human and agricultural systems

Projecting Diversity Conflicts of Future Land System Pathways in China Under Anthropogenic and Climate Forcing

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