Drought sensitivity analysis of meteorological and vegetation indices in Dak Nong, Vietnam

Abstract

Drought poses an increasing threat to agricultural sustainability in Dak Nong, Vietnam. This study investigates the sensitivity of meteorological and vegetation indices (VIs) to drought conditions in the region. We analyzed 23 years (2000–2022) of data from 11 meteorological stations and remote sensing imagery covering various crop types. Our methodology involved correlating multiple VIs (VHI, VCI, TCI, and TVDI) with meteorological drought indices (SPI and SPEI) at different time scales. Results reveal a strong correlation (r > 0.7, p < 0.001) between the vegetation health index (VHI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), particularly at a 4-month time scale (SPEI4). This combination proved most effective for drought monitoring across diverse vegetation types. Spatial analysis identified drought-sensitive zones covering 10.8% of the province, with steep terrain and limited river density. These areas, predominantly occupied by perennial agriculture, annual crops, and production forests, show heightened vulnerability to water scarcity. Our findings provide a scientific basis for targeted drought management strategies, including establishing an early warning system using SPEI4 and VHI, implementing water-efficient agricultural practices, and prioritizing farmer support in high-risk areas. This study enhances drought resilience and sustainable water resource management in Dak Nong and similar tropical regions.