Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change

Achakulwisut, P.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Anenberg, Susan C.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf20

Cited by 82 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Indeed, fine dust particles at monitoring sites across the southwest respond together to broad climate drivers, with the strongest predictors of fine dust being climate over the previous two months (seasonal r 2 ranging from 0.36 to 0.71) (Achakulwisut et al. ).…”

Section: Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increases in regional dust forecast with increasing aridity in the southwest are expected to further impact human health, including increasing rates of Coccidiomycosis and up to a 300% increase in hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory illness (adults ≥65 yr old based on RCP8.5 emission scenarios; Achakulwisut et al. ). Further, dry or ephemeral lakes, common in the Great Basin and Mojave Deserts, produce very fine dust that contain elevated levels of potentially toxic inorganic constituents (Goldstein et al.…”

Section: Human Health and Economic Well‐beingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Changes to the frequency and/or intensity of fire regimes in western drylands over the previous century, due to a combination of land use, land management (including fire suppression), and species invasions, have been implicated in increased dust emissions (Vermeire et al 2005, Whicker et al 2006a,b, Miller et al 2012, Dukes et al 2018. Forecasted increases in aridity and decreases in soil moisture for drylands globally (Schlaepfer 2017) and for US drylands in particular (Cook et al 2015, Ault et al 2016) will likely amplify dust risks posed by these drivers (Achakulwisut et al 2018).…”

Section: Pressuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world

et al. 2019

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Erosion by wind is one of the principal processes associated with land degradation in drylands and is a significant concern to land managers and policymakers globally. In the drylands of North America, millions of tons of soil are lost to wind erosion annually. Of the 60 million ha in the United States identified as most vulnerable to wind erosion (arid and dominated by fine sandy soils), 64% are managed by federal agencies (37 million ha). Here we review the drivers and consequences of wind erosion and dust emissions on drylands in the United States, with an emphasis on actionable responses available to policymakers and practitioners. We find that while dryland soils are often relatively stable when intact, disturbances including fire, domestic livestock grazing, and off‐highway vehicles can increase horizontal eolian flux by an order of magnitude, in some cases as much as 40‐fold. A growing body of literature documents the large‐scale impacts of deposited dust changing the albedo of mountain snow cover and in some cases reducing regional water supplies by ~5%. Predicted future increases in aridity and extreme weather events, including drought, will likely increase wind erosion and consequent dust generation. Under a drier and more variable future climate, new and existing soil‐ and vegetation‐disturbing practices may interact in synergistic ways, with dire consequences for environments and society that are unforeseen to many but fairly predictable given current scientific understanding. Conventional restoration and reclamation approaches, which often entail surface disturbance and rely on adequate moisture to prevent erosion, also carry considerable erosion risk especially under drought conditions. Innovative approaches to dryland restoration that minimize surface disturbance may accomplish restoration or reclamation goals while limiting wind erosion risk. Finally, multidisciplinary and multijurisdictional approaches and perspectives are necessary to understand the complex processes driving dust emissions and provide timely, context‐specific information for mitigating the drivers and impacts of wind erosion and dust.

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Section: Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Human Health and Economic Well‐beingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Pressuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world

et al. 2019

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“…During the next few decades, compositions of future DOS layers might change because of anticipated changes in the landscape and climate in dust‐source regions, such as vegetation change in response to warming and drying, along with human‐related disturbances and even expansion of drylands vulnerable to wind erosion (Achakulwisut et al, 2018; Duniway et al, 2019; Munson et al, 2011; Seager et al, 2007). These possibilities indicate the importance of continued measurement of DOS compositions for contributions to modeling in support of water‐management strategies as well as for signals of landscape change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dust Deposited on Snow Cover in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, 2011–2016: Compositional Variability Bearing on Snow‐Melt Effects

et al. 2020

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Light‐absorbing particles in atmospheric dust deposited on snow cover (dust‐on‐snow, DOS) diminish albedo and accelerate the timing and rate of snow melt. Identification of these particles and their effects is relevant to snow‐radiation modeling and water‐resource management. Laboratory‐measured reflectance of DOS samples from the San Juan Mountains (USA) were compared with DOS mass loading, particle sizes, iron mineralogy, carbonaceous matter type and content, and chemical compositions. Samples were collected each spring for water years 2011–2016, when individual dust layers had merged into one (all layers merged) at the snow surface. Average reflectance values of the six samples were 0.2153 (sd, 0.0331) across the visible wavelength region (0.4–0.7 μm) and 0.3570 (sd, 0.0498) over the full‐measurement range (0.4–2.50 μm). Reflectance values correlated inversely to concentrations of ferric oxide, organic carbon (1.4–10 wt.%), magnetite (0.05–0.13 wt.%), and silt (PM63‐3.9; median grain sizes averaged 21.4 μm) but lacked correspondence to total iron and PM10 contents. Measurements of reflectance and Mössbauer spectra and magnetic properties indicated that microcrystalline hematite and nano‐size goethite were primarily responsible for diminished visible reflectance. Positive correlations between organic carbon and metals attributed to fossil‐fuel combustion, with observations from electron microscopy, indicated that some carbonaceous matter occurred as black carbon. Magnetite was a surrogate for related light‐absorbing minerals, dark rock particles, and contaminants. Similar analyses of DOS from other areas would help evaluate the influences of varied dust sources, wind‐storm patterns, and anthropogenic inputs on snow melt and water resources in and beyond the Colorado River Basin.

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“…While this study simulates the impact of climate change on emitted pollutants, it does not project its effect on wildfire and dust emissions, which are sensitive to variations in meteorology and highly susceptible to natural variability (Achakulwisut et al, 2018;Mills et al, 2015;Yue et al, 2013). For regional or local projections, our results suggest carefully weighing the degree of natural variability at the relevant scale to ensure the robustness of reported climate penalty estimates.…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001195mentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution

et al. 2019

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Variations in meteorology associated with climate change can impact fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution by affecting natural emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and pollutant transport. However, substantial discrepancies exist among model-based projections of PM 2.5 impacts driven by anthropogenic climate change. Natural variability can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in these estimates. Using a large ensemble of climate and atmospheric chemistry simulations, we evaluate the influence of natural variability on projections of climate change impacts on PM 2.5 pollution in the United States. We find that natural variability in simulated PM 2.5 can be comparable or larger than reported estimates of anthropogenic-induced climate impacts. Relative to mean concentrations, the variability in projected PM 2.5 climate impacts can also exceed that of ozone impacts. Based on our projections, we recommend that analyses aiming to isolate the effect climate change on PM 2.5 use 10 years or more of modeling to capture the internal variability in air quality and increase confidence that the anthropogenic-forced effect is differentiated from the noise introduced by natural variability. Projections at a regional scale or under greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios can require additional modeling to attribute impacts to climate change. Adequately considering natural variability can be an important step toward explaining the inconsistencies in estimates of climate-induced impacts on PM 2.5 . Improved treatment of natural variability through extended modeling lengths or initial condition ensembles can reduce uncertainty in air quality projections and improve assessments of climate policy risks and benefits.Plain Language Summary Climate change can worsen air pollution caused by small particles in the atmosphere as it alters temperature, precipitation, and other weather variables. Models have been used to project the effects climate change can have on airborne particle concentrations. However, natural year-to-year and longer-term variations in weather can make it difficult to estimate the impacts specifically caused by human forces. In this study, we use a large set of climate and air quality simulations to assess the effect of natural variability in model-based projections of climate change impacts on air pollution over the United States. Our results show that natural variations in predictions of climate change effects on fine particle levels can be significant. We recommend that projections use longer simulation lengths than typically applied, 10 years or more, in order to filter out this natural variability and better reflect the effect of human-caused climate change on particle pollution. Natural variability can also make it challenging to confidently project human-caused climate impacts in some regions or if efforts are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By using larger modeling lengths or simulation sets, projections of climate change impacts on air pollution and climate policy benefit analyses can be impr...

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Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the US Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change

Cited by 82 publications

References 76 publications

Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world

Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world

Dust Deposited on Snow Cover in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, 2011–2016: Compositional Variability Bearing on Snow‐Melt Effects

Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution

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