Droughts, cereal prices, and price stabilization options

Dorosh, Paul A.; Smart, Jenny; Minten, Bart; Stifel, David

doi:10.2499/9780896296916_09

Cited by 2 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Thus, an increase in the ratio means real appreciation of the Ethiopian currency in relation to the US dollar. 8 SeeDorosh et al (2020) andMera (2018), among others, for detailed discussions of the 2015/2016 droughts, government responses, and their impact on the economy.9 The exchange rate premium is calculated as the percentage difference between the parallel exchange rate and the official exchange rate against the US dollar.10 We used the prais procedure in STATA to correct for autocorrelation in the models for cereal, food, and allitem inflation.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Monetary, fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis

Ndikumana

Nkurunziza²,

Martín

et al. 2022

Review Development Economics

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The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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confidence: 99%

“…8 8 See Dorosh et al (2020) and Mera (2018), among others, for detailed discussions of the 2015/2016 droughts, government responses, and their impact on the economy. …”

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confidence: 99%

Monetary, fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis

Ndikumana

Nkurunziza²,

Martín

et al. 2022

Review Development Economics

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“…In contrast to a number of other African countries, the new Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia government has not engaged in setting cereal prices or holding large buffer stocks for price stabilization (Rashid et al, 2018). Yet, price volatility in domestic Ethiopian cereal markets is similar to its East African neighbors (Dorosh et al, 2018).…”

Section: The Agricultural Economymentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Ethiopia's main agricultural exports are flowers, oil seeds, and coffee, but the production of cereals (e.g. Teff, Sorghum, Maize, Wheat, and Barley) comprises of nearly 75% of all agricultural land (Dorosh et al, 2018). Geographically, the cultivation of cereals is spread throughout most of the country, excepting desert areas such as the Somali Region, where dry conditions make the cultivation of any crops impossible (Chamberlin and Schmidt, 2013).…”

Section: The Agricultural Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…General inflation and natural disasters are the greatest drivers of cereal price volatility in Ethiopia (Dorosh et al, 2018). Pertaining to the latter, Ethiopia has always had high levels of climate variation and has been susceptible to famines and food crises, which of course have devastating price effects (Conway and Schipper, 2011).…”

Section: The Agricultural Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk, shocks, and markets : Theory and evidence from agricultural systems in low and middle income countries

Keenan¹

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Markets are the bedrock of economic theory. The idea that prosperity is formed through the exchange of goods and services is as old as the study of economics itself (Smith 2008). Yet for agrarian societies, market-driven prosperity is far from certain. Economic actors in agricultural food systems continuously face uncertainty and risk -market price risk, climate risk, and political risk to name a few sources. Even if actors account for these risks ex ante, unexpected events (shocks) lie in wait to derail progress towards prosperity. This thesis investigates economic actors' adaptation to risk, responses to shocks, and markets' role in actors' decisionmaking under risk.The thesis presents economic theory and empirical evidence from three countries in the Global South -Tanzania, Peru, and Ethiopia -across different levels of economic actors. First, the thesis starts with understanding how households use production diversification to manage risks ex ante and what the implications of diversification strategies and market access are for household nutrition. Next, the thesis aims to understand intra-household decision-making in agricultural investment under production and market risk and what the implications of gendered decision-making are for family labor requirements and productivity. The thesis then moves to the analysis of ex post responses to risk. It explores how coffee-farming households affected by negative production shocks change their marketing strategies as a coping mechanism. Finally, the thesis zooms out to the market-level to show how market price fluctuations in food markets can be a source of uncertainty and drive regional and national instability and conflict through price effects on producers and consumers.Each chapter presents a stand-alone contribution to distinct strands of economic literature, but together the chapters underscore economic actors' heterogeneity in risk management and responses to shocks. Economic actors are diverse and operate in a myriad of contexts with distinct opportunities and constraints. Diverse contexts and actors necessitate diverse behavior. Despite this feature of the real-world, 'It is odd that heterogeneity does not play a greater role in economic models' (Kirman, 2006). Much of economic theory has been built on the notion of representative actors (Hartley, 1996; Marshall, 1920), and empirical work is often implicitly or explicitly concerned with mean impacts (Carneiro et al., 2002). In recent years, theoretical considerations have been evolving to consider actors' heterogeneity, especially when aggregating microeconomic actors into macroeconomic models (Cristelli, Pietronero, and Chapter

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Droughts, cereal prices, and price stabilization options

Cited by 2 publications

References 17 publications

Monetary, fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis

Monetary, fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis

Risk, shocks, and markets : Theory and evidence from agricultural systems in low and middle income countries

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