Droughts in Portugal in the 18th century: A study based on newly found documentary data

Fragoso, Marcelo; Carraça, Maria da Graça; Alcoforado, María João

doi:10.1002/joc.5745

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…were described recently in many publications (e.g. Wilhite and Glantz, 1985;Tate and Gustard, 2000;Herweijer et al, 2007;Mishra and Singh, 2010;Dai 2011a;Brázdil et al, 2013Brázdil et al, , 2018IPCC, 2014;Fragoso et al, 2018) and therefore a brief overview is omitted here.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Przybylak

Oliński

Koprowski

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in recent centuries, including their frequency of occurrence, coverage, duration and intensity. For this purpose both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation were used. The reconstructions of droughts based on all the mentioned sources of data covered the period 996–2015. Examples of megadroughts were also chosen using documentary evidence, and some of them were described. Various documentary sources have been used to identify droughts in the area of Poland in period 1451–1800 and to estimate their intensity, spatial coverage and duration. Twenty-two local chronologies of trees (pine, oak, and fir) from Poland were taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). The longest chronology covers the years 996–1986 and was constructed for eastern Pomerania. The delimitation of droughts based on instrumental data (eight long-term precipitation series) was conducted using two independent approaches. In the first approach we used the globally and nationally popular Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), which was calculated for 1-, 3-, and 24-month time scales. Thus, three categories of droughts were analysed: meteorological (SPI1), agricultural (SPI3) and hydrological (SPI24). For delimitation of droughts (dry months), the criteria used were those proposed by McKee (1993) and modified for the climate conditions of Poland by Łabędzki (2007). Droughts were divided into three categories based on the following SPI values: moderate droughts (−0.50 to −1.49), severe (−1.50 to −1.99), and extreme (≤−2.00). The second approach includes the new proposed method for distinguishing droughts and quantitatively estimating their intensity and duration. More than one hundred droughts were found in documentary sources from the mid-15th century to the end of the 18th century, including 17 megadroughts. A greater-than-average number of droughts was observed in the second halves of the 17th century, and of the 18th century in particular. Dendrochronological data confirmed this general tendency in the mentioned period. The clearly greatest number of negative pointer years occurred in the 18th century and then in the period 1451–1500. In the period 996–2015, a total of 758 negative pointer years were recorded. Analysis of SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that the long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable in the last two or three centuries. Extreme and severe droughts were most frequent in the coastal part of Poland and in Silesia. Most droughts had a duration of two months (about 60–70 %), or 3–4 months (10–20 %). Frequencies of droughts with a duration of 5 and more months were lower than 10 %. The longest droughts had a duration of 7–8 months. The frequency of droughts of all categories in Poland in the period 1722–2015 was greatest in winter. This fact should be taken into account when analysing droughts delimited using documentary evidence. In Poland in 1451–1800, in light of this sort of information, droughts in spring and summer clearly dominated, while only three winter droughts were mentioned. The occurrence of negative pointer years (a good proxy for droughts) was compared with droughts delimited based on documentary and instrumental data. A good correspondence was found between the timing of occurrence of droughts identified using all three kinds of data (sources).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Przybylak

Oliński

Koprowski

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…Pfister and Brázdil, 1999;Dobrovolný and Barriendos Vallvé (1995) and Barriendos (1997) developed a Drought Rogation Index, taking into account five levels of drought intensity/duration according to the hierarchic system of rogation ceremonies performed in Barcelona (Spain). Rogation ceremonies as dry/wet proxies have been analysed in many papers covering Spain and Portugal (see Domínguez-Castro et al, 2008Fragoso et al, 2018;Tejedor et al, 2018 and references therein), Italy (Piervitali and Colacino, 2001) and France (Garnier, 2014). Rogations are also well-known in former Spanish colonies in Central and South America (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Documentary data and the study of the past droughts: an overview of the state of the art worldwide

Brázdil

Kiss

Luterbacher

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including: general annals, chronicles, and memoirs, diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather, the records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records, legal-administrative evidence, religious sources, letters, marketplace and shopkeepers' songs, newspapers and journals, pictographic evidence, chronograms, epigraphic evidence, early instrumental observations, society commentaries, compilations and books, and historical-climatological databases. These come from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also discussed from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree-rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

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“…These Catholic ceremonies asked for the end of the Divine punishment of drought periods (Pro Pluvia rogations) or long wet/ stormy spells (Pro Serenitate rogations). Most records consist of correspondence between religious and civil authorities and the local communities, in order to carry out expensive public actions, to "solve" problems caused by adverse weather conditions in Spain (Barriendos 1997, Fernández-Cortizo 2005; in Portugal (Alcoforado et al 2000, Taborda et al 2004, Silva 2017Fragoso et al 2018); in France Garnier 2019); in Italy (Piervitali and Colacino, 2001); as well as in Central and South America (Prieto and Garcia Herrera 2009, Garza Merodio 2007, Domínguez-Castro et al 2015. Data from Pro Serenitate ceremonies in Porto were analysed by Silva (2017Silva ( , 2019.…”

Section: Other Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3. Unlike the droughts that may last for a long time and affect a large area (Fragoso et al 2018), heavy precipitation that causes river floods are more concentrated in space and time, and the reaction of the civil and religious authorities must be faster in organizing ceremonies to ask for the end of weather inclemency. In fact, flood frequency oscillations show a reduced agreement with Pro Serenitate rogations, compiled in previous research (Silva 2017(Silva , 2019.…”

Section: Main Characteristics Of the Floods Of The Douro River In Pormentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical floods of the Douro River in Porto, Portugal (1727–1799)

et al. 2021

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Extreme meteorological events have had devastating consequences all over the world throughout the ages. In this study, we look into the floods at the mouth of the Douro River (Porto, Portugal) in the eighteenth century to expand the data series of floods in Northern Portugal. Information was gathered mostly from documentary narrative sources, either individual or institutional (administrative and ecclesiastic), some of which include reports of Pro Serenitate ceremonies. A study by the priest Rebelo Costa (1789) and the memories of the merchant Ignacio Henckell from 1717 to 1800 stand out among the individual sources. We concluded that there was great interannual variability in the occurrence of the 54 recorded floods, the highest number of which occurred in the 1780s. The “catastrophic” floods were recorded in 1727, 1739, 1769, 1774, 1777, 1788 and 1798, four of which are studied in detail in this paper. The greatest number of flood events took place in winter and autumn, and most of them lasted between 1 and 3 days. An analysis of the description of the floods, their impacts and the associated meteorological causes was carried out. In most cases, the frontal activity associated with Atlantic cyclonic systems was the cause of positive precipitation anomalies in NW Iberia. The great variability in heavy precipitation was confirmed by the new data. However, hardly any temporal simultaneity was found with other case studies in Southern Europe, except for Spain, especially several localities of Galicia and the mid Douro Valley (Zamora).

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Droughts in Portugal in the 18th century: A study based on newly found documentary data

Cited by 20 publications

References 54 publications

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries

Documentary data and the study of the past droughts: an overview of the state of the art worldwide

Historical floods of the Douro River in Porto, Portugal (1727–1799)

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