Dry-hot magnitude index: a joint indicator for compound event analysis

Abstract

Weather and climate extremes, such as droughts and heat waves, have been commonly characterized by different properties, including frequency, duration, and magnitude. The magnitude is among the most important properties that determine the impact of extremes. Compound dry and hot events may cause detrimental impacts on water resources, energy security, crop production and food security, and have been receiving increasing attention in recent years. Although extensive studies have been conducted to investigate the magnitude of individual droughts or hot extremes, evaluation of the magnitude of compound dry and hot events has received limited attention. In this study, we develop a dry-hot magnitude index (DHMI) to characterize the magnitude of compound dry and hot events, using monthly precipitation and daily maximum temperature, which takes into account both dry and hot conditions. The DHMI is used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the magnitude of compound dry and hot events in China during summer (June, July, and August) for the period of 1961-2013. Results show that high magnitudes of compound dry and hot events mainly occur in northeastern and southwestern China, with higher magnitudes mostly observed in recent decades since the 1990s. The proposed magnitude index has potential to be a useful tool for analyzing compound dry and hot events and their impacts.

Increasing agricultural risk to hydro-climatic extremes in India

“…This suspects that the combined adverse effect of temperature and precipitation (i.e. drought) is playing a more detrimental role in agricultural productivity [55], than the individual impact of temperature extremes. The regional analysis on agricultural vulnerability showed that although few clusters of districts had favorable (unfavorable) conditions for the indicators, it eventually resulted in increased (decreased) agricultural vulnerability.…”

A monitoring and prediction system for compound dry and hot events

“…compound dry and hot events) (Seneviratne et al 2012, Leonard et al 2014, Liu et al 2017, Miralles et al 2018. Recent decades have witnessed multiple compound dry and hot events in different regions, such as Europe (2003), China (2006), Russia (2010), southern US (2011), and southern Africa (2015-2016) (Barriopedro et al 2011, Hoerling et al 2013, Flach et al 2018, Herring et al 2018, Wu et al 2019. The compound dry and hot event may lead to impacts larger than the sum of impacts from individual extremes and has attracted increased attention in recent decades (Seneviratne et al 2012, Kopp et al 2017.…”

Vulnerability of hop‐yields due to compound drought and heat events over European key‐hop regions

“…Overall, we find that the climate factors considered in this study—capturing CEs during the growing season—explain nearly half of the variations in hop yield anomalies. Exposure to combinations of the four modes is better resolved through the analysis of daily variability, as opposed to using annual averages (Zscheischler et al ., 2017; Wu et al ., 2019). However, we assume that CEs only explain a part of the yield variability and that other factors, such as soil properties, management decisions and market factors, likely contribute to the remaining yield variations (e.g., Nesvada et al 2013; (Krofta et al ., 2013; Čeh, 2014); Kolenka et al, 2016).…”

“…Compound events may lead to amplified impacts on agricultural production compared to individual events and have received increased attention in recent years (Zscheischler et al ., 2017; Hao et al ., 2019; Potopová et al ., 2019a; Potopová et al ., 2020). The combination of multiple extreme climate events (CEs) is termed a compound event and often results from a combination of climatic events (Leonard et al ., 2014; Wu et al ., 2019).…”