Introduction
It is uncertain whether e-cigarettes facilitate smoking cessation in the real world. We aimed to understand whether and how transitions among cigarette, e-cigarette, and dual use are associated with sociodemographics, dependence measures, and biomarkers.
Methods
We followed 380 adult daily cigarette users and dual users every 2 months for up to 2 years. We estimated transition rates between non-current, cigarette-only, e-cigarette-only, and dual use states using a multistate transition model. We estimated univariable hazard ratios (HR) for demographics, dependence measures for cigarettes and e-cigarettes, biomarkers, spousal/partner behaviors, and other measures.
Results
We estimated that participants transitioned from cigarette-only to e-cigarette-only through a period of dual use. Dual users ceased smoking (transitioning to e-cigarette-only use) at a greater rate than cigarette-only users did (HR 2.44, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.02). However, of the 60% of dual users estimated to transition to single product use in one year, 83% would transition to cigarette-only use and only 17% to e-cigarette-only use. E-cigarette dependence measures were generally associated with reduced e-cigarette cessation rather than enhanced cigarette cessation. E-cigarette users motivated by harm/toxicity reduction or because of restrictions on where/when they could smoke had reduced rates of smoking relapse. Cigarette dependence and spousal smoking were barriers to cigarette cessation for dual users, while using e-cigarettes first in the morning, motivation to quit smoking, and sensory/social/emotional enjoyment of e-cigarettes (secondary dependence motives) were facilitators smoking cessation among dual users.
Conclusions
Tobacco control policy and interventions may be informed by the barriers and facilitators of product transitions.
Implications
While e-cigarettes have the potential to promote smoking cessation, their real-world impact is uncertain. In this cohort, dual users were more likely to quit smoking than cigarette-only users, but the overall impact was small because most dual users returned to cigarette-only use. Moreover, e-cigarette dependence promoted continued dual use rather than smoking cessation. Yet, high motivation to quit smoking and the sensory, social, and emotional enjoyment of e-cigarettes facilitated smoking cessation in dual users. Better understanding the barriers and facilitators of transitions can help to develop regulations and interventions that lead to more effective use of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation.