Durable institution under fire? The NPT confronts emerging multipolarity

Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen

doi:10.1080/13523260.2021.1998294

Cited by 14 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Future research would do well to note these dynamics and test their robustness under different conditions. The challenges posed by multipolarity in the global nuclear order may eventually produce nuclear crises wherein the United States confronts the more mature arsenals of China and Russia (Gibbons and Herzog 2022). Would the American public and its European counterparts—as our theory predicts—react warily toward Russia as our survey respondents did vis-à-vis North Korea?…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion

Allison

Herzog

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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How robust is public support for extended nuclear deterrence in patron and client states? Recent studies have improved scholarly understanding of US public opinion about nuclear weapon use against non-nuclear adversaries. Yet, there is limited knowledge of public attitudes regarding retaliation for nuclear strikes against US allies. We develop a theoretical typology of nuclear crises and investigate this phenomenon with a novel survey experiment ( n = 6,623). Americans, Japanese, and South Koreans viewed realistic emergency alert messages about a most-likely case for nuclear retaliation: a North Korean missile attack on a US ally protected by the nuclear umbrella. Support for nuclear retaliation is low in all three countries, with important cross-national differences. Favorability increases with North Korean nuclear first-use, but it remains limited nonetheless. Surprisingly, US “tripwire” troop casualties do not increase Americans’ demands for nuclear retaliation. These findings have important implications for the study of nuclear crises and practice of extended deterrence.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%