Duration of effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19 caused by the omicron variant

Higdon, Melissa M; Baidya, Anurima; Walter, Karoline K; Patel, Minal; Issa, Hanane; Espié, Emmanuelle; Feikin, Daniel R.; Knoll, Maria Deloria

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00409-1

Cited by 118 publications

(129 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Immune evasion of Omicron subvariants reduced overall protection of pre-Omicron natural immunity and accelerated its waning (Figure 3), mirroring the effect of Omicron on vaccine immunity, but at a slower rate. Vaccine immunity against Omicron subvariants lasts for <6 months, 5, 7, 8 but pre-Omicron natural immunity, assuming Gompertz decay, may last for just over a year.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This pattern also mirrors that of vaccine immunity, which wanes rapidly against infection, but is durable against severe COVID-19, regardless of variant. 4, 6–8, 30…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The future of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is uncertain, but it hinges on virus evolution and the level and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection. 1–3 While current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines had a critical role in reducing COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, their rapidly waning immune protection, particularly against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, 4–8 limits their role in shaping the future of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology compared to other vaccines, such as vaccinia, which eradicated smallpox. 9…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection in Qatar

Chemaitelly

Nagelkerke

Ayoub

et al. 2022

Preprint

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BACKGROUND: The future of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinges on virus evolution and duration of immune protection of natural infection against reinfection. We investigated duration of protection afforded by natural infection, the effect of viral immune evasion on duration of protection, and protection against severe reinfection, in Qatar, between February 28, 2020 and June 5, 2022. METHODS: Three national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted to compare incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity among unvaccinated persons with a documented SARS-CoV-2 primary infection, to incidence among those infection-naive and unvaccinated. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazard regression models. RESULTS: Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against pre-Omicron reinfection was 85.5% (95% CI: 84.8-86.2%). Effectiveness peaked at 90.5% (95% CI: 88.4-92.3%) in the 7th month after the primary infection, but waned to ~70% by the 16th month. Extrapolating this waning trend using a Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of 50% in the 22nd month and <10% by the 32nd month. Effectiveness of pre-Omicron primary infection against Omicron reinfection was 38.1% (95% CI: 36.3-39.8%) and declined with time since primary infection. A Gompertz curve suggested an effectiveness of <10% by the 15th month. Effectiveness of primary infection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 reinfection was 97.3% (95% CI: 94.9-98.6%), irrespective of the variant of primary infection or reinfection, and with no evidence for waning. Similar results were found in sub-group analyses for those ≥50 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Protection of natural infection against reinfection wanes and may diminish within a few years. Viral immune evasion accelerates this waning. Protection against severe reinfection remains very strong, with no evidence for waning, irrespective of variant, for over 14 months after primary infection.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This pattern also mirrors that of vaccine immunity, which wanes rapidly against infection, but is durable against severe COVID-19, regardless of variant. 4, 6–8, 30…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection in Qatar

Chemaitelly

Nagelkerke

Ayoub

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…In late 2021, the Omicron BA.1 variant was rst detected in southern Africa, associated with dramatic neutralization escape that may justify the classi cation of the lineage as a novel serotype of SARS-CoV-2, 9,10 and it caused a major global surge. Several VE studies performed during BA.1 predominance have been published, 11 including in children and adolescents, [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21] mostly showing a reduced VE against symptomatic COVID-19 but preserved VE against severe outcomes. Classi ed under the same lineage is an antigenically distinct subvariant BA.2, 22,23 which overtook BA.1 in early March 2022 globally on GISAID, 24 and led to the peak of the rst Omicron wave in some countries and regions including Denmark and Hong Kong.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac in children and adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 infection during Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong

Lau

Leung

Duque

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 subvariant replaced BA.1 globally in early 2022, and caused an unprecedented tsunami of cases in Hong Kong, resulting in the collapse of elimination strategy. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac against BA.2 is unclear. We utilize an ecological design incorporating population-level vaccine coverage statistics and territory-wide case-level SARS-CoV-2 infection surveillance data, and investigate the VE against infection during the Omicron BA.2 wave between January 1 to April 19, 2022, in Hong Kong for children and adolescents. We estimate VE to be 33.0% for 1 dose of BNT162b2 in children aged 5–11 and 40.8% for 2 doses of CoronaVac in children aged 3–11. We also estimate 54.9% and 86.8% VE for 2 and 3 doses of BNT162b2, and 55.0% and 92.0% VE for 2 and 3 doses of CoronaVac in adolescents aged 12–18. Our findings support preserved VE against infection by variants of concerns for children and adolescents in settings with extremely low levels of prior SARS-CoV-2 circulation.

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“…Thus far, most reports about boosters refer to the administration of the same mRNA vaccines administered as primary schemes. 3,4 Argentina started the massive vaccination roll-out on December 29, 2020, with the recombinant adenovirus (rAd)-based vaccine rAd26-rAd5 (Sputnik V, from Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology). In a context of decreased vaccine availability across the world, the Argentine Ministry of Health incorporated other immunisation schedules, which included: the vectored vaccines ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (from Oxford University and AstraZeneca) and CanSinoBIO Ad5-nCoV-S (from CanSino Biologics Inc), the inactivated viral SARS-CoV-2 vaccine BBIBP-CorV (from Beijing Institute of Biological Products Co); and the mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 (from Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (from Moderna).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protection of homologous and heterologous boosters after primary schemes of rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BBIBP-CorV during the Omicron outbreak in adults of 50 years and older in Argentina: a test-negative case-control study

González

Olszevicki

Gaiano

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Objectives: To estimate the protection against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalisations, and death after homologous or heterologous third-dose (booster) in individuals with primary vaccination schemes with rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1nCoV-19, BBIBP-CorV or heterologous combinations, during the period of Omicron BA.1 predominance. Design: Retrospective, test-negative, case-control study, with matched analysis. Setting: Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between 12/1/21-4/1/21. Participants: 422,144 individuals ≥50 years who had received two or three doses of COVID-19 vaccines and were tested for SARS-CoV-2. Main outcome measures: Odds ratios of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalisations and death after administering different boosters, compared to a two-dose primary scheme. Results: Of 221,933(52.5%) individuals with a positive test, 190,884(45.2%) had received a two-dose vaccination scheme and 231,260(54.8%) a three-dose scheme. The matched analysis included 127,014 cases and 180,714 controls. The three-dose scheme reduced infections (OR 0.81[0.80-0.83]) but after 60 days protection dropped (OR 1.04[1.01-1.06]). The booster dose decreased the risk of hospitalisations and deaths after 15-59 days (ORs 0.28[0.25-0.32] and 0.25[0.22-0.28] respectively), which persisted after administration for 75[66-89] days. Administration of a homologous booster after a primary scheme with vectored-vaccines provided low protection against infections (OR 0.94[0.92-0.97] and 1.05[1.01-1.09] before and after 60 days). Protection against hospitalisations and death was significant (OR 0.30[0.26-0.35] and 0.29[0.25-0.33] respectively) but decreased after 60 days (OR 0.59[0.47-0.74] and 0.51[0.41- 0.64] respectively). The inoculation of a heterologous booster after a primary course with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, rAd26-rAd5, BBIBP-CorV, or heterologous schemes, offered some protection against infection (OR 0.70[0.68-0.71]), which decreased after 60 days (OR 1.01[0.98-1.04]). The protective effect against hospitalisations and deaths (OR 0.26[0.22-0.31] and 0.22[0.18-0.25] respectively) was clear and persisted after 60 days (OR 0.43[0.35-0.53] and 0.33[0.26-0.41]). Conclusions: This study shows that, during Omicron predominance, heterologous boosters provide an enhanced protection and longer effect duration against COVID-19-related hospitalisations and death in individuals older than 50, compared to homologous boosters.

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Duration of effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19 caused by the omicron variant

Cited by 118 publications

References 2 publications

Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection in Qatar

Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection in Qatar

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac in children and adolescents against SARS-CoV-2 infection during Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong

Protection of homologous and heterologous boosters after primary schemes of rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BBIBP-CorV during the Omicron outbreak in adults of 50 years and older in Argentina: a test-negative case-control study

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