Dust to Feed, Dust to Grey: The Effect of In-Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity

Abstract

Intensive agriculture and deep plowing resulted in top-soil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s. These effects have been shown to affect agricultural income and land values that persisted for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in-utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust Bowl and later-life health find inconclusive and mixed results. This paper re-evaluates this literature and studies the long-term effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to top-soil erosion caused by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s on old-age longevity. Specifically, we employ Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census and implement event studies and difference-indifference designs to compare the longevity of individuals in high/medium versus low top-soil erosion counties post-1930 versus pre-1930. We find intent-to-treat reductions in longevity of about 0.9 months for those born in high erosion counties post-1930. We show that these effects are not an artifact of preexisting trends in longevity. Additional analyses suggest the effects are more pronounced among children raised in farm households, females, and those with lower maternal education. We also provide suggestive evidence that reductions in adulthood income are a likely mechanism channel.

The Early Bird Catches the Worm: The Effect of Birth Order on Old‐Age Mortality

“…The birth order effects on longevity are roughly 10–28 percent of the estimated effect of a college degree. Noghanibehambari and Fletcher (2022) examine the impact of in utero and childhood exposure to the 1930s Dust Bowl and topsoil erosions on old age longevity. They find intent‐to‐treat effects of about 1‐month lower longevity.…”

“…2022). The economic exposures during the 1930s have also been examined in the case of the Dust Bowl and the resulting agricultural failure (Cutler, Miller, and Norton 2007; Noghanibehambari and Fletcher 2022; Arthi 2018; Atherwood 2022). There is also evidence that the New Deal programs during the 1930s had an influence on later‐life health and mortality (Modrek et al.…”

CenSoc: Public Linked Administrative Mortality Records for Individual-level Research

“…Validation of mortality estimates. The CenSoc datasets allow researchers to investigate the relationship between early life sociodemographic characteristics and later-life longevity 11,13,16,37 . To validate estimates of the association between covariates and longevity using CenSoc data, we present an updated example from Goldstein et al 38 on the association between education and longevity.…”

The Long Shadow of the Past: Early-Life Disease Environment and Later-Life Mortality

“…While previous studies focus on the link between early-life postnatal mortality and other outcomes (Almond et al, 2012;Bozzoli et al, 2009;Saavedra, 2017) or other disease exposures and later-life mortality links (Beach, Clay, et al, 2022;Fletcher, 2018aFletcher, , 2018bMazumder et al, 2010), no study has directly explored the associations between infant mortality rate in early-life and later-life mortality. Second, also we add to the small but growing literature that evaluates the relevance of early life conditions and adversities on later-life mortality and longevity (Aizer et al, 2016;Cutler et al, 2006;Noghanibehambari & Engelman, 2022;Noghanibehambari & Fletcher, 2022, 2023Schmitz & Duque, 2022).…”