Dynamic Analysis of a Stochastic Rumor Propagation Model with Regime Switching

Jia, Fangju; Cao, Chunzheng

doi:10.3390/math9243277

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…For instance, Esmaeeli and Sajadi [25] developed a sceptical rumor model for individuals located on a non-negative integer line, whereas a case illustrating the spread of fake news in a community of finite size was considered by Mahmoud [21]. Moreover, recent developments in stochastic rumor propagation modeling can be found in Jia and Cao [26] and Roy and Saha [27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bearing in mind the complexity of the problems connected to the phenomenon, the aim of this paper is twofold: (i) to study and enhance a recent growth model for rumor propagation, (ii) to build and study two stochastic processes that are able to describe the growth model itself in the presence of random fluctuations. In contrast to stochastic models treated in [21,[25][26][27], which are based on spatial dynamics on suitable state-spaces and depend on network topologies, for analysis of point (ii), we focus on time-inhomogeneous settings involving suitable birth-death and diffusion processes whose means are identical to the growth model considered in point (i).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic Growth Models for the Spreading of Fake News

Di Crescenzo,

Paraggio,

Spina

2023

Mathematics

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The propagation of fake news in online social networks nowadays is becoming a critical issue. Consequently, many mathematical models have been proposed to mimic the related time evolution. In this work, we first consider a deterministic model that describes rumor propagation and can be viewed as an extended logistic model. In particular, we analyze the main features of the growth curve, such as the limit behavior, the inflection point, and the threshold-crossing-time, through fixed boundaries. Then, in order to study the stochastic counterparts of the model, we consider two different stochastic processes: a time non-homogeneous linear pure birth process and a lognormal diffusion process. The conditions under which the means of the processes are identical to the deterministic curve are discussed. The first-passage-time problem is also investigated both for the birth process and the lognormal diffusion process. Finally, in order to study the variability of the stochastic processes introduced so far, we perform a comparison between their variances.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic Growth Models for the Spreading of Fake News

Di Crescenzo,

Paraggio,

Spina

2023

Mathematics

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“…Einwiller and Kamins considered the moderating effect of rumors-targeted identity on rumor impact and refutation effectiveness [24]. Jia et al studied a rumor propagation model with regime switching considering colored noise and white noise and calculated a threshold Rs that guarantees the existence of rumor demise and stationary distribution [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Global and Local Refutation Mechanism on Rumor Propagation in Heterogeneous Network

Huo

Zhang

2022

Mathematics

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In the process of rumors propagation, the behavior of individuals to propagation or refutation is not only influenced by the surrounding global environment but also the local environment. In this paper, a modified rumor propagation model is proposed considering the global and local effects of the rumor refutation mechanism and the activity rate of individuals in a heterogeneous network, and the dynamics process of the rumor propagation is derived by using the mean-field equation. Combining theoretical proving and simulation analysis, it shows that the critical threshold of rumor propagation has a great relationship with individual activity rates and global and local effects of the rumor refutation mechanism. The greater the government’s efforts to refute rumors, the lower the critical threshold of rumor propagation and the smaller the final rumor size. While relatively, people are much more likely to believe the global rumor refutation information taken with official information, local rumor refutation information has little influence on rumor propagation.

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“…Actually, real life is full of randomness, the external environmental factor can also interfere with rumors. [18][19][20] Here, when a rumor is disturbed by external circumstances or when the events that trigger it may constantly evolve or change, its spread will be influenced by stochastic factors. Since people's attitude towards rumors changes accordingly as events evolve continuously and external environment changes at random in these cases, which exerted corresponding effects on stochastic rumor spreading.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical behavior and optimal impulse control analysis of a stochastic rumor spreading model

Huo¹,

Chen²

2022

Chinese Phys. B

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The Internet era has brought great convenience to our life and communication. Meanwhile, it also makes a bunch of rumors propagate faster and causes even more harm to human life. Therefore, it is necessary to perform effective control mechanisms to minimize the negative social impact from rumors. Thereout, firstly, we formulate a rumor spreading model considering psychological factors and thinking time, then, we add white noise (i.e., stochastic interference) and two pulse control strategies which denote education mechanism and refutation mechanism into the model. Secondly, we obtain the global positive solutions and demonstrate global exponential stability of the unique positive periodic rumor-free solution. Thirdly, we discuss the extinction and persistence of rumor. Moreover, we use Pontriagin's minimum principle to explore the optimal impulse control. Finally, several numerical simulations are carried out to verify the effectiveness and availability of the theoretical analysis. We conclude that the pulse control strategies have a great influence on controlling rumor spreading, and different control strategies should be adopted under different transmission scenarios.

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Dynamic Analysis of a Stochastic Rumor Propagation Model with Regime Switching

Cited by 3 publications

References 44 publications

Stochastic Growth Models for the Spreading of Fake News

Stochastic Growth Models for the Spreading of Fake News

Effect of Global and Local Refutation Mechanism on Rumor Propagation in Heterogeneous Network

Dynamical behavior and optimal impulse control analysis of a stochastic rumor spreading model

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