Dynamic biogeography and conservation of endangered species

Channell, Rob; Lomolino, Mark V.

doi:10.1038/47487

Cited by 527 publications

(478 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Human effects can have large impacts on the distribution of species (Channel & Lomolino, 2000). The assumption of equilibrium between a species distribution and environmental conditions is less valid in disturbed ecosystems such as Mediterranean forests, where human influence is strong (e.g., land-use effects, fire occurrences).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!

Keenan

Serra

Lloret

et al. 2010

Global Change Biology

205

170

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Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche-and process-based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO 2 fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process-based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non-CO 2 fertilization scenario by the period 2050-2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche-based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche-based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche-and process-based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!

Keenan

Serra

Lloret

et al. 2010

Global Change Biology

205

170

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Indeed, recent work demonstrating that many macroecological patterns can be derived from spatial variation in aggregation (Storch et al 2008), and that human activities are fundamentally altering species ranges (Channell & Lomolino 2000;Parmesan 2006), has re-emphasized their importance. Much theory now exists concerning how range margins might be set by the interaction of ecological and evolutionary processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physiological tolerances account for range limits and abundance structure in an invasive slug

et al. 2009

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Despite the importance of understanding the mechanisms underlying range limits and abundance structure, few studies have sought to do so. Here we use a terrestrial slug species, Deroceras panormitanum, that has invaded a remote, largely predator-free, Southern Ocean island as a model system to do so. Across Marion Island, slug density does not conform to an abundant centre distribution. Rather, abundance structure is characterized by patches and gaps. These are associated with this desiccation-sensitive species' preference for biotic and drainage line habitats that share few characteristics except for their high humidity below the vegetation surface. The coastal range margin has a threshold form, rapidly rising from zero to high density. Slugs do not occur where soil-exchangeable Na values are higher than 3000 mg kg K1 , and in laboratory experiments, survival is high below this value but negligible above it. Upper elevation range margins are a function of the inability of this species to survive temperatures below an absolute limit of K6.48C, which is regularly exceeded at 200 m altitude, above which slug density declines to zero. However, the linear decline in density from the coastal peak is probably also a function of a decline in performance or time available for activity. This is probably associated with an altitudinal decline in mean annual soil temperature. These findings support previous predictions made regarding the form of density change when substrate or climatic factors set range limits.

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“…Large terrestrial mammals are among the most threatened taxa in the world, with 25 per cent of species facing extinction and 50 per cent with declining populations (Channell & Lomolino 2000;Ceballos et al 2005). Mammals of South Asia are among the most endangered (Schipper et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The shrinking ark: patterns of large mammal extinctions in India

et al. 2010

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Mammal extinctions are widespread globally, with South Asian species being most threatened. We examine local extinctions of 25 mammals in India. We use historical records to obtain a set of locations at which each species was known to have been present at some time in the last 200 years. We then use occupancy estimation models to draw inferences about current presence at these same locations based on field observations of local experts. We examine predictions about the influence of key factors such as protected areas, forest cover, elevation, human population density and cultural tolerance on species extinction. For all 25 species, estimated local extinction probabilities (referenced to a 100 year time frame) range between 0.14 and 0.96. Time elapsed since the historical occurrence record was an important determinant of extinction probability for 14 species. Protected areas are positively associated with lower extinction of 18 species, although many species occur outside them. We find evidence that higher proportion of forest cover is associated with lower extinction probabilities for seven species. However, for species that prefer open habitats (which have experienced intensive land-use change), forest cover alone appears insufficient to ensure persistence (the complement of extinction). We find that higher altitude is positively associated with lower extinction for eight species. Human population density is positively associated with extinction of 13 species. We find that 'culturally tolerated' species do exhibit higher persistence. Overall, large-bodied, rare and habitat specialist mammals tend to have higher extinction probabilities.

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Dynamic biogeography and conservation of endangered species

Cited by 527 publications

References 16 publications

Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!

Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!

Physiological tolerances account for range limits and abundance structure in an invasive slug

The shrinking ark: patterns of large mammal extinctions in India

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