Dynamic Conceptual Design under Market Uncertainty and Price Volatility

Manca, Davide; Fini, Andrea; Oliosi, Mirko

doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-53711-9.50068-7

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…the chemical investment/operation appealing respect to alternative financial opportunities. Manca et al (2011) showed that the economic profitability of a conventional HDA plant is in line with the comments of Milmo (2004), reported in Section 25.3.1.2, about the 40% average utilization rate of the process.…”

Section: Figure 258supporting

confidence: 77%

“…To determine if the CO shocks have either a stochastic nature or are deterministic and depend from previous quotations, it is worth considering the autocorrelogram of shocks. Manca et al (2011) showed that the autocorrelogram of CO prices over rather long-term horizons (i.e., years) does not show significant values. Therefore, one can infer that the shocks in the CO quotations are characterized by a stochastic nature and are neither periodic nor exhibit systematic trends.…”

Section: Em Of the Rcmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Manca and coauthors (Manca and Grana, 2010;Manca et al, 2011;Manca, 2012Manca, , 2013aManca, , 2013bManca, , 2014 proposed the following DEPs to assess the economic sustainability of an HDA plant: Where N P ,N R are the number of (by)products and raw materials; C,F are the price/ cost of process streams and their corresponding flowrates; nHpM,nEquip are the number of production hours in a month and the number of process units involved in the EA; W,IC are the electric power absorbed by a specific unit and the investment cost of equipment; S, H 2 O, FO are the subscripts that identify respectively the steam used in the reboilers of the distillation columns, the water used in the condensers of those columns, and the fuel oil used in the furnace of the HDA plant (see also http:// pselab.chem.polimi.it/ for further details). Equations (25.5)e(25.7) can be extended/ adapted to any chemical process.…”

Section: Ems Of Utilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As far as material utilities are concerned, the EM can be traced back to the commodity models described in subsection 25.3.2.1.4. For instance, Manca et al (2011), and Rasello and Manca (2014) proposed an EM for fuel oils distilled from CO, which are used for heating purposes in chemical plants.…”

Section: Ems Of Utilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Sustainability of Products and Processes

Manca¹

2015

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

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Section: Figure 258supporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Em Of the Rcmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Ems Of Utilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ems Of Utilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Sustainability of Products and Processes

Manca¹

2015

Computer Aided Chemical Engineering

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“…A widely used model to express the linkage of a commodity price to the price of a reference good is the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. − This technique permits the functional time dependence of the price of a commodity to be identified from its previous values and those of the reference component . This method was recently employed , to estimate future prices of toluene and benzene as the raw material and final product, respectively, of a hydrodealkylation plant.…”

Section: Commodity Price Forecast Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic Design of Bioethanol Supply Chains Including Commodity Market Dynamics

Mazzetto

Ortiz-Gutiérrez

Manca

et al. 2013

Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.

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The blending between biobased and conventional fuels is mandatory according to European directives. Bioethanol has had beneficial effects for energy security issues in some countries of the world (e.g., U.S., Brazil), but it is still not widespread in Italy. This paper analyzes the establishment of a corn-based bioethanol supply chain in northern Italy through a mixed-integer linear programming modeling framework, which allows its financial performance to be evaluated by optimizing the spatially explicit layout in terms of production technologies, biomass production sites, and the transport network. The paper relaxes the too stiff and limiting assumption of keeping constant, for long-term horizons, the price/cost of raw materials, products, and utilities. The economic assessment is based on the forecasted price dynamics of the commodities related to ethanol production. Specifically, three price-forecast models are introduced and tuned according to the Italian context. The robustness of the supply chain with respect to changes in price evolution is assessed to mitigate the risk for investors. Finally, different strategies to keep the supply chain operative are discussed, and their impact on final customers and Italian taxpayers is detailed.

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