Dynamic criticality for infrastructure prioritization in complex environments

Extreme weather-related events are showing how infrastructure disruptions in hinterlands can affect cities. This paper explores the risks to city infrastructure services including transportation, electricity, communication, fuel supply, water distribution, stormwater drainage, and food supply from hinterland hazards of fire, precipitation, post-fire debris flow (PFDF), smoke, and flooding. There is a large and growing body of research that describes the vulnerabilities of infrastructures to climate hazards, yet this work has not systematically acknowledged the relationships and cross-governance challenges of protecting cities from remote disruptions. An evidence base is developed through a structured literature review that identifies city infrastructure vulnerabilities to hinterland hazards. Findings highlight diverse pathways from the initial hazard to the final impact on an infrastructure, demonstrating that impacts to hinterland infrastructure assets from hazards can cascade to city infrastructure. Beyond the value of describing the impact of hinterland hazards on urban infrastructure, the identified pathways can assist in informing cross-governance mitigation strategies. It may be the case that to protect cities, local governments invest in mitigating hazards in their hinterlands and supply chains.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-boundary risks of hinterland hazards to city infrastructure

Joines,

Horgan,

et al. 2024

Exposure of rural Alaskan infrastructure to coastal erosion and permafrost subsidence

Brown,

Passalacqua,

Faust

2024

Accelerating permafrost thaw and coastal erosion in rural Alaska destabilize the built environment, increasing the risk of sociotechnical failures that negatively impact nearby communities. Infrastructure adaptation is necessary to mitigate these threats, yet epistemic uncertainty remains about where the most exposed infrastructure is located and the corresponding community impact of failure. As a result, existing adaptation activity may not be prioritized according to relative need, potentially reducing the efficiency and effectiveness of adaptation activity. To address this gap, this study seeks to identify the likely failures, cascading impacts, as well as which communities are likely to experience them. To do so, this study employs machine learning techniques and permafrost terrain maps to identify vulnerable coastlines. Using density-based cluster mapping, statistical summarization, and semi-cognitive mapping, we explore the locations and functions of infrastructure, and infrastructure interdependencies occurring on Alaskan coastlines. Results suggest the following to improve vulnerable infrastructure outcomes: (1) allocate public funding to support adaptation of exposed infrastructure, (2) increase financial and physical resources for resilience research and development for exposed infrastructure, and (3) expand access to adaptation activity through increased local input in decision-making. For instance, as results show that water and sewer infrastructure in the Bethel census area is highly exposed, results could support additional funding to organizations that repair and relocate such infrastructure. Through these changes, regional adaptation activity can become more prioritized – ensuring that funds address the most pressing needs.

Infrastructure first principles for the Anthropocene

Chester,

Allenby

2024

There appears to be a growing decoupling between the conditions that infrastructures were designed for and today’s rapidly changing environments. Infrastructures today are largely predicated on the technologies, goals, and governance structures from a century ago. While infrastructures continue to deliver untold value, there is growing evidence that these critical, basic, and lifeline systems appear ill-equipped to confront the volatility, uncertainty, accelerating conditions, and complexity that define them and their changing environments. Innovative and disruptive first principles are needed to guide infrastructures in the Anthropocene. Drawing from emerging infrastructure research and disciplines that appear better able to confront disruption and change, a novel set of first principles are identified: 1) Plan for complex conditions and surprise; 2) Recouple with agility and flexibility; 3) Govern for exploration and instability; 4) Build consensus as control decentralizes; 5) Restructure to engage with porous boundaries; and, 6) Cyberthreat planning is now mission critical. These principles should guide infrastructure planning recognizing the changing nature and increasingly obsolete boundaries that have defined engineered systems in the modern era.