Dynamic Fitting Strategy for Physiological Models: A Case Study of Cardiorespiratory Model for Simulation of Incremental Aerobic Exercise

Abstract

The use of mathematical models of physiological systems in medicine has allowed the development of diagnostic, treatment, and medical educational tools, but their application for predictive, preventive, and personalized purposes is restricted by their complexity. Although there are strategies that reduce the complexity of applying models by fitting techniques, they focus on a single instant of time, neglecting the effect of the system's temporal evolution. The aim of this work is to propose a dynamic fitting strategy of physiological models with large number of parameters and a constrained amount of experimental data, focused on obtaining better predictions based on the system's temporal trend and useful to predict future states. It was applied in a cardiorespiratory model as a case study. Experimental data from a longitudinal study of healthy adult subjects under aerobic exercise were used for fitting and validation. The model predictions obtained at steady-state using the proposed strategy and the nominal values of the parameters were compared. The best results corresponded mostly to the proposed strategy, mainly regarding the overall prediction error. The results evidenced the usefulness of the dynamic fitting strategy, highlighting its use for predictive, preventive, and personalized applications.