Dynamic input-output model taking account of the investment lag

Баранов, А. О.; Pavlov, V. G.

doi:10.1016/s0954-349x(05)80022-0

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…We will point out the Neumann model and the Leontief's model in dynamic contrast among all the models of economic dynamics. Most of them are able to demonstrate the transient processes and control over them, the structural shifts and statistical stability more complete [10,11]. One of the most useful properties of these models is their ability to be presented in a form of differential equations that describe the dynamic economic systems.…”

Section: Problem Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Optimal control over unstable macroeconomic systems

Marahovskij¹,

Babkin²,

Shiryaeva³

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A.S. Marahovskij, А.V. Babkin, N.V. Shiryaeva OPTIMAL CONTROL OVER UNSTABLE MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS А.С. Мараховский, А.В. Бабкин, Н.В. Ширяева ОПТИМАЛЬНОЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЕ НЕУСТОЙЧИВЫМИ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМИ СИСТЕМАМИThe article presents a mathematical description of the process of an optimal control over an unstable macroeconomic system based on the Leontief's input-output model. The optimal equation allows setting a balanced growth rate for a macroeconomic system. It is the main problem in the current development of regional and national economies. The methods of an optimal control are generally applicable to stable systems. This article shows that a developing macroeconomic system is unstable and therefore an optimal control over it has its peculiarities. An unstable macrosystem is divided into two subsystems: a stable multidimensional and an unstable one-dimensional. The stable system is optimized via standard methods, where a single growing exponent sets the growth rate of the entire system from the second unstable system. In order to divide the system, the author suggests using a homothetic transformation. To calculate the parameters of an optimal control a Riccati equation is used. The results of solving a matrix of factors determine the cost of restructuring unstable macroeconomic systems with a balanced growth rate. The knowledge of the cost of an optimal control and restructuring creates prerequisites for a more effective process to manage socio-economic politics in the region and the whole country. These results play a vital role in decision-making processes of management and administrative bodies concerning statistical analyses and managing the economic situation. The results are based on the hypothesis that the dynamic models of macroeconomic systems are linear. In practice, actual economic systems are subject to various effects like synergy and self-organization. They cannot be described under the linearity hypothesis. Our future research requires the elaboration upon the problems of an optimal control over nonlinear and unstable economic systems.

show abstract

Section: Problem Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…will contain matrix , G  the structure of which is far simpler than the initial one. If there is a possibility to use a homothetic transformation (11) to transform matrix G into a diagonal matrix, then the initial system can be transformed to a system with separated variables by using coefficients :…”

Section: Problem Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control over unstable macroeconomic systems

Marahovskij¹,

Babkin²,

Shiryaeva³

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Methods used to form information data bases of intersectoral dynamic models with a distributed construction lag were published in the past [see Baranov (1991Baranov ( , 1992, Baranov and Pavlov (1994)]. Therefore we shall dwell only upon some issues of information formation for the ecological block of the model, first of all, on description of the source of information.…”

Section: The Data Base Of the Model's Ecological Blockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and forecast of the state of environmental protection in Russia

Баранов

Pavlov

Тагаева

1997

Environ Resource Econ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input-Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are: -methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy; -a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input-Output Model of the Russian economy; -a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed; -calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997costs of water/air purification, Dynamic Input-Output Model, analysis, forecast,

show abstract

“…Начиная с работ В. Леонтьева, существенный вклад в развитие данных направлений внесли, например, такие исследователи, как А. Г. Гранберг, К. Миядзава, Р. Миллер, В. А. Колемаев, А. О. Баранов, В. Н. Павлов, Е. В. Рюмина, Г. Р. Серебряков, М. Н. Узяков, А. А. Широв, А. А. Янтовский и др. [2,8,9,11,12,14,15,16].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified