Dynamic integration of sustainability indicators in insular socio-ecological systems

Banos-González, Isabel; Martínez-Fernández, Julia; Selma, Miguel Ángel Esteve

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.08.014

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…A fuller description of the model testing results is provided in Appendix 1. A general model overview can be found in Banos- González et al ( , 2015. In this paper, we focus on the houbara potential habitat model sector (Fig.…”

Section: Density Of Paved Roadsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

et al. 2016

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In this work, we apply a dynamic modelling approach to analyse the habitat loss of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae). This tool allows us to assess the effects of the socio-economic and environmental interactions on the factors threatening the habitat and to carry out a prospective analysis. The results show a potential habitat loss of around 13 % during the period 1996-2011, the land uptake and increase in new roads and tracks being the factors contributing most. After model testing, a set of scenarios was explored. Under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, around 20 % of the habitat would be lost by the end of the period considered (2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021)(2022)(2023)(2024)(2025). The impact of the economic growth scenario on the habitat would mean an additional loss of around 21 % with respect to BAU, whereas under the recession scenario, the loss might be around 6.5 % lower than BAU. The policy of restoration of gavias-traditional farming systems-would suppose an additional loss of almost 6 %, relative to BAU. If this policy took place under economic growth conditions, it might mean an additional loss of almost 28 % relative to BAU. These results point to the existence of a potential trade-off between the recuperation of ecosystem services offered by restored gavias and the conservation of the houbara habitat, which must be addressed within the management processes, as well as to the need for compensatory measures to guarantee the conservation goals.

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Section: Density Of Paved Roadsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

et al. 2016

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“…An extensive sensitivity analysis (SA) applied in different stages of model development and application is presented in this paper. This is done with the Fuerteventura sustainability dynamic model (FSM), developed as a tool to assess the expected effects of different environmental policies, intended to achieve a more sustainable development of this insular socio-ecological system [14,15]. The SA was applied to answer the following questions:…”

Section: Uncertainty In the Assessment Of Sustainability Policies In mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The building of the Fuerteventura sustainability dynamic model (FSM, [14,15]) arose as a tool to assist decision-makers in the sustainable management of natural resources of the island in the long-term. The FSM, built by following the system dynamics methodology [22,23], provides in-depth knowledge of the main components of this socio-ecological system and their changes over time.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity Analysis in Socio-Ecological Models as a Tool in Environmental Policy for Sustainability

et al. 2018

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The assessment of environmental policies and sustainability in socio-ecological systems (SES) should be tackled from a holistic perspective, using methodologies such as dynamic system models. However, the integral assessment of SES generally suffers from high levels of uncertainty. In this work, the potential of sensitivity analysis (SA) to assess uncertainty and its implications in SES models, specifically in the Fuerteventura sustainability model, has been explored. An extensive SA was applied in different stages of model development and application. The different SA techniques applied allowed, besides a detailed assessment of robustness, the identification of leverage points and their application to define environmental policies and management measures intended to improve sustainability. The results suggest that measures based on leverage points identified by the SA in the model are more effective than others proposed so far by different agents. Furthermore, the assessment of uncertainty of measures thought to contribute to sustainability shows that, when uncertainty ranges are considered, the thresholds of some sustainability indicators might be exceeded, whereas mean values would not. Therefore, the surpassing of some sustainability thresholds might go unnoticed if uncertainties are not considered in the policy analysis. This work shows SA to be a powerful tool that provides important insights to policy makers and end users, with regard to improving environmental policies for sustainability.

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“…The economy of most of those islands is based on tourism (Banos-Gonzalez et al, 2015, 2016aPetridis, 2012;Spilanis et al, 2009), but also on low rate agricultural, stock-breeding, fisheries and industrial activities (Spilanis et al, 2009;Petridis, 2012). Since services including administration, education, health care, energy and water supply, and solid waste treatment have to be provided to each island on its own due to transport limitations (Spilanis et al, 2013), the services' sector engrosses a large number of employees and largely contributes to the local economy.…”

Section: Implementation In a 'Typical' Mediterranean Islandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Τhe intensive growth of tourism and recreational activities during the recent decades (Christofakis et al, 2009;Ghermandi, 2015) also imposed the need to preserve tourist destinations, and protect cultural heritage and quality of life. For European islands in particular, integrated management has been attempted, for example, in the Canary Islands (Banos-Gonzalez et al, 2015, 2016a, 2016b and some Greek islands (Spilanis et al, 2009;Petridis, 2012). Various models were used to identify and calculate interactions between sustainability indicators and causal factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An exercise in decision support modelling for islands: a case study for a ‘typical’ Mediterranean island

Tsoukala¹,

Spilanis²,

Banos-González³

et al. 2018

ISJ

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ABSTRACT:Decision support for island management must be based on quantitative tools able to integrate the natural, economic, and social environment, including the effects of recent climate change. In this context, a decision support framework is proposed, characterized by generality and flexibility, to be adapted to the specific characteristics of each island. The framework includes: (a) compilation of existing information and organization in a DPSIR framework; (b) selection of the main economic activities; (c) calculation of environmental, economic, and social indicators through models; (d) development of scenarios for future evolution; and (e) ranking for their preferability using a multicriteria methodology. Scenario development and weighting of indicators and criteria can be based on stakeholders' and public views collected through questionnaires. The proposed framework is applied to a 'typical' fictitious Mediterranean island where tourism, services, and low-rate agriculture are the main economic activities. Mid-and long-term (including climate change) scenario analyses are performed as an exercise with three scenarios expressing different policies in terms of economic and environmental priorities. Advantages and limitations of the proposed framework for real-world applications are discussed.

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Dynamic integration of sustainability indicators in insular socio-ecological systems

Cited by 32 publications

References 66 publications

Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

Dynamic modelling of the potential habitat loss of endangered species: the case of the Canarian houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata fuerteventurae)

Sensitivity Analysis in Socio-Ecological Models as a Tool in Environmental Policy for Sustainability

An exercise in decision support modelling for islands: a case study for a ‘typical’ Mediterranean island

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