Despite the spread
of digital (model and AI-based) techniques,
the industry-standard pharmaceutical crystallization design and scale-up
is still based on experiments’ design (DoE). Many orthogonally
designed and usually relatively lightly monitored experiments are
performed as a part of it. The final design/scale-up is inherently
truncated by experimental and statistical modeling errors and assumptions,
compromising the reliability of the calculated design space (DS).
This study proposes to apply process modeling in a complementary way:
utilize the experiments from the DoE to calibrate an application-driven
model, quantify its accuracy, and use itin parallel with the
statistical interpretation of the DoEto design the process.
Both the DoE and model-based DS determination involve workflow-specific
assumptions, simplifications, and errors, but the overlap between
the independent results may be considered a derisked DS. We demonstrate
this workflow on the design of a fed-batch salting-out crystallization
for a commercial active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). The model
was identified based on product particle size distribution data of
a DoE set from a small-scale reactor (0.25 L) and a manufacturing
batch (ca. 4000 L). Although reactors with intermediate volumes are
also generally applied as a part of scale-up, included in the presented
case study, those were not included in the model development and verification.
The kinetic equations were taken from our previously developed cooling
crystallization model of the same API. After calibration and accuracy
evaluation, the critical process parameters were determined using
interpretable machine learning via Shapley diagrams, and the DS was
mapped and visualized using Monte Carlo sampling-based simulations.
The DS was validated for 0.25 L experiments. The model-based DS was
somewhat narrower than the DoE-based DS on a small scale. The DS determined
for plant-scale crystallization can guide the manufacturing-scale
process design and operation. The extrapolation capabilities of the
model were stressed by external validation by defining and validating
experimentally the DS for a 1 L crystallization. These results indicate
that models developed in this application-centric way can enhance
the robustness of the processes, and the modeling branch does not
add any risk. In the worst-case scenario, if the modeling fails, one
still has the results from the traditional design approach.