Dynamic modeling applied for the assessment of areas with agricultural activities in the Matopiba region/Brazil

Abstract

Matopiba region is considered the main agricultural frontier in Brazil currently, with the expansion of areas suitable for agricultural activities intensifying since the 2000s, causing changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the region. This study aimed to analyze changes in LULC in the Matopiba region from 1985 to 2020 and identify the spatial dynamics that occurred with the expansion of agricultural activities. To assess the changes in LULC, scenarios obtained from the Mapbiomas database between 1985 and 2020 were used. The area was divided into pre-established classes by Mapbiomas, including the Agriculture class. The dynamic modeling of these scenarios allowed for the evaluation of losses and gains in LULC classes during the assessed period due to the expansion of agricultural activities. The 2020 scenario of the Matopiba region provided by Mapbiomas was used as a reference to assess the ability of the dynamic modeling used to estimate scenarios. The results demonstrate that areas designated for agricultural activities increased by 14.77% between 1985 and 2020, with the largest expansion observed in the period from 2005 to 2015 (4.81%). The scenario estimated by the dynamic model showed similarities to the reference scenario, demonstrating the ability of dynamic modeling to simulate and analyze the spatial dynamics of regions and estimate future scenarios.