Dynamic, multi‐scale analyses indicate site‐ and landscape‐level forest cover drive Yellow‐billed and Black‐billed Cuckoo interannual turnover

Abstract

Studies of habitat use in breeding birds often assume species have relatively stable breeding distributions. Some species, however, display considerable year‐to‐year variability, complicating efforts to determine suitable or preferred habitats. After returning to their breeding range, Black‐billed Cuckoos (Coccyzus erythropthalmus) and Yellow‐billed Cuckoos (C. americanus) are thought to range widely before nesting, resulting in high rates of interannual breeding‐site turnover, potentially contributing to conflicting habitat associations found in past studies. However, difficulty detecting these rare and declining species could lead to overinflated estimates of interannual turnover. Using broadcast surveys to increase detection probability, we collected detection/non‐detection data in 2019 and 2020 at 41 publicly owned sites in Illinois and performed a dynamic, multi‐scale occupancy analysis for each species to separate detection probability from potential interannual turnover and determine landscape and small‐scale variables driving habitat use and occupancy dynamics. We found strong support for interannual turnover for both species based on poor performance of non‐dynamic models and variation in estimated annual occupancy (20% and 21% increase between years for Black‐billed and Yellow‐billed Cuckoos, respectively). Black‐billed Cuckoos persisted at sites with less forest in the surrounding landscape and used areas with denser understory vegetation. Yellow‐billed Cuckoos colonized sites with greater canopy cover, avoided developed landscapes, and used areas with a shorter subcanopy layer. The dynamic nature of habitat use in these two cuckoo species suggests the importance of coordinating management and conservation across a broader spatial scale. Managing for larger patches of dense shrubs in less forested landscapes would benefit Black‐billed Cuckoos while Yellow‐billed cuckoos would benefit from management creating forested areas with open understories in less‐developed landscapes.