Dynamic optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited supply

Abstract

Strategic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines is urgently needed, especially in light of the limited supply that is expected to last for most, if not the entire, 2021. Dynamically adapting the allocation strategy to the evolving epidemiological situation could thus be critical during this initial phase of vaccine rollout. We developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China that aim at reducing COVID-19 burden measured through different metrics. We found that reactively adapting the vaccination program to the epidemiological situation (i.e., allocate vaccine to a target group before reaching full coverage of other groups with initial higher priority) can be highly beneficial as such strategies are capable to simultaneously achieve different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). The highest priority categories are broadly consistent under different hypotheses about vaccine efficacy, differential vaccine efficacy in preventing infection vs. disease, vaccine hesitancy, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. Our findings also suggest that boosting the daily capacities up to 2.5 million courses (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number equal to 1.5 or lower. Finally, we estimate that a high vaccine supply in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.

Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

“…Finally, it would be interesting to analyse adaptive vaccination prioritizations that change as the epidemiological situation evolves over time, but that would require the development of dynamic optimization algorithms that lie beyond the scope of this work 56 . Nonetheless, our study provides estimates of the effect of relaxing NPIs over the course of the epidemic.…”

Vaccination Schedule under Conditions of Limited Vaccine Production Rate

“…Apart from medics, truck drivers were listed as crucial occupations [41]. Yu et al [42] have shown that dynamic vaccination strategies, where it is acceptable to redirect vaccines to regions with the temporarily highest demand, are most effective. Moreover, to provide the most effective protection, the criterion for stratifying the population may change depending on the number of available vaccines, e.g., with low vaccine availability, the prioritization of the population may be related to occupational groups, but with a high number of vaccines, it may be related to age groups [43].…”

Optimization in the Context of COVID-19 Prediction and Control: A Literature Review

“…The second problem sought to minimize both the number of infected individuals and the quantity of vaccine concentrate administered during treatment. Researchers have also developed a data-driven mechanistic model of COVID-19 transmission to find optimal vaccine distribution strategies, specifically in China, to reduce the effects of the virus [190] .…”