Dynamic Preconditioning of the Minimum September Sea-Ice Extent

Williams, James H.; Tremblay, Bruno; Newton, R.; Allard, Richard A

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0515.1

Cited by 76 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Our results confirm their findings for the last 2 decades, but we also find a more moderate link for the entire 80-year period. For the recent 10 years (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014), when our ice export values are directly observed by SAR the detrended anticorrelation is r FS ice export-Sept SIE = −0.74 (Table 1), similar to Williams et al (2016). For the last 20 years we get a more modest influence (r = −0.47), and for the entire 80-year period we get r = −0.43 (Table 1).…”

Section: Consequences Of Spring Fram Strait Ice Export Anomaliessupporting

confidence: 68%

“…This study suggested that Fram Strait ice area export is a good predictor for the September sea ice extent because it represents the sum of ice export from the peripheral seas and the net pack ice divergence. This study expands on the work by Williams et al (2016) by estimating the FS ice area export over a much longer time period, from 1935 to 2014. In this study, we evaluate the long-term mean, variability, and trends over this 80-year record and further examine the influence of the long-term FS export on a new time series of September SIE, also covering the years 1935-2014 (Walsh et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…The transition from winter and refreezing to summer and positive ice-albedo feedback occurs gradually later in the year as one moves north, but melting will prevail over most of the Arctic Basin onwards from May (Markus et al, 2009). Williams et al (2016) found that FS export anomalies are a better predictor for the September SIE than coastal divergence between 1993 and 2014. This was caused by the ice export being a good estimate also for the net perennial pack ice divergence.…”

Section: Consequences Of Spring Fram Strait Ice Export Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…This is consistent with Fučkar et al (2015) who found that a reduction of the FS winter export related to their CanadianSiberian dipole cluster explains a thickening over most of the Arctic Basin between 0.2 and 0.5 m. This cluster is the one with the largest change in FS export and explains 28.6 % of the variability, while the other two clusters mostly describe divergence within the basin. Williams et al (2016) recently found a clear link between FS area export anomalies and September SIE (r = 0.72) for the years 1993-2014 and that export anomalies from February until June contributed to the following September SIE. We therefore proceed with a discussion of the spring export that has increased since 1979.…”

Section: High Annual Export During the Last Decadementioning

confidence: 97%

“…Changes in ice export through FS between March and August could therefore influence the following September SIE by fostering development of open water within the ice pack that in turn enhances the ice-albedo feedback during the melt season (Smedsrud et al, 2011;Kwok and Cunningham, 2010). Such an influence has recently been examined between 1993 and 2012 by Williams et al (2016) in combination with coastal divergence. This study suggested that Fram Strait ice area export is a good predictor for the September sea ice extent because it represents the sum of ice export from the peripheral seas and the net pack ice divergence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract.A new long-term data record of Fram Strait sea ice area export from 1935 to 2014 is developed using a combination of satellite radar images and station observations of surface pressure across Fram Strait. This data record shows that the long-term annual mean export is about 880 000 km 2 , representing 10 % of the sea-ice-covered area inside the basin. The time series has large interannual and multi-decadal variability but no long-term trend. However, during the last decades, the amount of ice exported has increased, with several years having annual ice exports that exceeded 1 million km 2 . This increase is a result of faster southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure over Greenland. Evaluating the trend onwards from 1979 reveals an increase in annual ice export of about +6 % per decade, with spring and summer showing larger changes in ice export (+11 % per decade) compared to autumn and winter (+2.6 % per decade). Increased ice export during winter will generally result in new ice growth and contributes to thinning inside the Arctic Basin. Increased ice export during summer or spring will, in contrast, contribute directly to open water further north and a reduced summer sea ice extent through the ice-albedo feedback. Relatively low spring and summer export from 1950 to 1970 is thus consistent with a higher mid-September sea ice extent for these years. Our results are not sensitive to long-term change in Fram Strait sea ice concentration. We find a general moderate influence between export anomalies and the following September sea ice extent, explaining 18 % of the variance between 1935 and 2014, but with higher values since 2004.

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Section: Consequences Of Spring Fram Strait Ice Export Anomaliessupporting

confidence: 68%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Consequences Of Spring Fram Strait Ice Export Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: High Annual Export During the Last Decadementioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years

et al. 2017

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Increasing transnational sea‐ice exchange in a changing Arctic Ocean

et al. 2017

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The changing Arctic sea-ice cover is likely to impact the trans-border exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic nations, affecting the risk of ice-rafted contamination. We apply the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) to identify sea-ice formation events and track sea ice to its melt locations. Most ice (52%) melts within 100 km of where it is formed; ca. 21% escapes from its EEZ. Thus, most contaminants will be released within an ice parcel's originating EEZ, while material carried by over 1 00,000 km 2 of ice-an area larger than France and Germany combined-will be released to other nations' waters. Between the periods 1988-1999 and 2000-2014, sea-ice formation increased by ∼17% (roughly 6 million km 2 vs. 5 million km 2 annually). Melting peaks earlier; freeze-up begins later; and the central Arctic Ocean is more prominent in both formation and melt in the later period. The total area of ice transported between EEZs increased, while transit times decreased: for example, Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations' EEZs an average of 46% faster while North American ice reached destinations in Eurasian waters an average of 37% faster. Increased trans-border exchange is mainly a result of increased speed (∼14% per decade), allowing first-year ice to escape the summer melt front, even as the front extends further north. Increased trans-border exchange over shorter times is bringing the EEZs of the Arctic nations closer together, which should be taken into account in policy development-including establishment of marine-protected areas. Plain Language SummaryWe use data from satellite images to identify the formation, drift tracks, and melt locations of sea ice in the Arctic. Most ice melts locally: only about 21% is exported from the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in which it is formed. That export is nonetheless about 1,000,000 km 2 each year. As the ice cover has thinned and the summer sea ice has retreated in a warming Arctic, formation and melt locations have moved further north, ice drifts have accelerated, and the area of ice formation and melt has increased. We looked at ice formation and transport between the EEZs of the Arctic nations, and broke the record into two periods : 1988-1999 and 2000-2014. As the Arctic warms, more ice is transported between EEZs and it is arriving at the receiving EEZ faster, than in the past. Between the two study periods: Sea ice velocity increased by about 14%/decade; Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations' EEZs 46% faster; and North American ice reached Eurasian destinations 37% faster. Exchanges of ice have increased as a result. For example, export of ice from Russia to Norway increased by 11% and export from Alaska to Russia by 16%.

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An ice‐obligate seabird responds to a multi‐decadal decline in Arctic sea ice

Divoky,

Jan,

Barbraud

2024

Ecosphere

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The Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from <20 to >200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to <50 pairs in 2021. Immigration and apparent survival were the primary demographic parameters affecting population growth with sea ice extent in late summer and fall the primary environmental driver. The initial growth occurred during a period of primarily negative winter Arctic Oscillations (WAO) and extensive summer sea ice. The decline began when an extremely positive WAO in 1989/1990 initiated changes in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation causing major reductions in summer sea ice throughout the region. The three‐decade decline in the population saw plateaus or minor growth with increasing frequency of negative WAOs and increasing declines following two previously identified “tipping points” in sea ice loss. Breeding success at the study colony declined with decreased availability of Arctic cod due to sea ice loss and increasing sea surface temperature and is presumed to have occurred at the source colonies for immigrants where similar oceanographic changes were occurring. Quasi‐extinction of the colony (reduction to <25 pairs) is predicted within the next two decades. The sensitivity of Mandt's black guillemot to multi‐decadal changes in the Arctic's cryopelagic ecosystem makes it an excellent sentinel species for the region with its recent collapse having dire implications for the Arctic Ocean's constituent species.

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Dynamic Preconditioning of the Minimum September Sea-Ice Extent

Cited by 76 publications

References 47 publications

Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years

Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years

Increasing transnational sea‐ice exchange in a changing Arctic Ocean

An ice‐obligate seabird responds to a multi‐decadal decline in Arctic sea ice

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