Dynamic risk analysis of marine and offshore systems suffering microbial induced stochastic degradation

An assessment of causes and failure likelihood of cross-country pipelines under uncertainty using bayesian networks

“…BN modelling has been used in different domains by many researchers, including in oil and gas as part of the process safety regime to assess and prioritise failures of safety systems under uncertainty. A number of researchers [14][15][16][17][18][19][20] have used BN models for a dynamic risk-based offshore pipeline safety and integrity assessment. While the rest of the researchers applied only the BN model, Adumene [20] used an integrated model of BN-Markove Misture (MM) with Monte Carlo simulation for operational safety assessment of pipelines with multiple Microbiologically Influence Corrosion (MIC) defects.…”

“…A number of researchers [14][15][16][17][18][19][20] have used BN models for a dynamic risk-based offshore pipeline safety and integrity assessment. While the rest of the researchers applied only the BN model, Adumene [20] used an integrated model of BN-Markove Misture (MM) with Monte Carlo simulation for operational safety assessment of pipelines with multiple Microbiologically Influence Corrosion (MIC) defects. Sulaiman and Tan [15] used a North Sea subsea pipeline as a case study, where there are historic data going back several decades.…”

A Connectionist Model for Dynamic Economic Risk Analysis of Hydrocarbons Production Systems

“…Risk has been broadly described in the literature as a measure of loss (the product of the event's likelihood and the degree of the economic loss). The Bayesian theorem is a model that describes how the hypotheses (priors) are updated having observed evidence (Adumene, Adedigba, Khan, & Zendehboudi, 2020a; Adumene, Khan, Adedigba, & Zendehboudi, 2021a; Adumene, Khan, Adedigba, Zendehboudi, & Shiri, 2021b; Adumene, Khan, & Adedigba, 2020b; Mamudu, Khan, Zendehboudi, & Adedigba, 2021). Thus, the model analyzes the risk sources for any reservoir production change (evidence).…”

Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks

“…In this work, we advance further in this direction by proposing a multistate Bayesian Network (BN) approach [25,39] that embeds different types of KID in the assessment of the degradation of safety barriers and their functional performance, within a Living Risk Assessment framework. The use of BNs for risk assessment has been rapidly spreading [2,3,8,[28][29][30]35,45] and the novelty of the BN modelling here proposed is related to the comprehensive evaluation of the multistate variables, based on the new KID that becomes available in relation to the safety barriers Health States (HS), e.g., in the form of data from the monitoring system, information from field inspection and maintenance, knowledge analysis from reporting, etc. Different monitoring approaches (i.e., continuous monitoring, safety event reporting) and safety barrier types (i.e., technical, procedural, organizational) are considered and, for each of them, a tailored approach is developed to assess the barrier HS and the corresponding Failure Probability (FP) (i.e., the probability that the safety barrier in a specific HS does not perform its function).…”