Dynamic Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: Validity and Dimensional Structure of the Stable-2007

Abstract

In this study, the predictive and incremental validity of the Stable-2007 beyond the Static-99 was evaluated in an updated sample of N = 638 adult male sexual offenders followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design. Scores and risk categories of the Static-99 (AUC = .721; p < .001) and of the Stable-2007 (AUC = .623, p = .005) were found to be significantly related to sexual recidivism. The Stable-2007 risk categories contributed incrementally to the prediction of sexual recidivism beyond the Static-99. Analyzing the dimensional structure of the Stable-2007 yielded three factors, named Antisociality, Sexual Deviance, and Hypersexuality. Antisociality and Sexual Deviance were significant predictors for sexual recidivism. Sexual Deviance was negatively associated with non-sexual violent recidivism. Comparisons with latent dimensions of other risk assessment instruments are made and implications for applied risk assessment are discussed.

The Application of Network Analysis to Dynamic Risk Factors in Adult Male Sex Offenders

“…Within the sexual-self-regulation cluster, the relatively strong connections between sexual preoccupation and sex as coping on the one hand and deviant sexual interests and emotional identification with children on the other are of particular interest. These findings are in line with a recent factor analysis of the STABLE-2007, which found that emotional identification with children loaded on the same factor as deviant sexual interests , whereas sexual preoccupation and sex as coping formed a separate factor together (Etzler, Eher, & Rettenberger, 2020).…”

Testosterone-Lowering Medication and Its Association With Recidivism Risk in Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

“…For this study, interrater reliability was calculated for 17 randomly selected cases of the total sample ( n = 60 persons) at T1 (ICC = .94, p < .001; mixed on both sides and absolute agreement). Similarly, the predictive and incremental validity of the instrument provided evidence for its predictive quality also in the German-speaking area (e.g., Etzler et al, 2018). Previous studies have mainly found medium-sized predictive validities ranging from AUC = .62 to AUC = .71 (Eher et al, 2013; Etzler et al, 2018).…”

“…Therefore, the authors recommended the use of the original Static-99 rather than the Static-99R at least for German-speaking countries. The German-speaking version of the instrument was also shown to be a reliable and valid risk assessment measure in a sample of forensic patients deemed as high risk with predictive validities ranging from area under the curve (AUC) = .72 to AUC = .86 (Eher et al, 2013;Etzler et al, 2018). Stable-2007.…”

“…Specifically, the number of patients convicted of sexual offenses and being treated with GnRH-agonists increased markedly during the according time period ( Czerny et al, 2002 ; Turner et al, 2013 , 2018 ). Given that sexually deviant interests are seen as one of the strongest predictors for sexual recidivism ( Etzler et al, 2018 ; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005 ), TLM could be considered as a treatment option for all patients with severe sexual deviant interests as it may reduce the overall sex drive and sexual fantasies. However, due to the serious side effects, it should always be critically scrutinized whether or not there are any other kinds of treatment (e.g., psychotherapy) that could be equally effective for the individual patient ( Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers [ATSA], 2012 ; Briken & Berner, 2010 ).…”

Cross-Validation of the Revised Version of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG-R) in a Sample of Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

“…Those who are clinically assessed are fully informed about the nature and the objectives of the assessment. Clients can refuse assessment without justifications; the rate of refusal is low (< 2%; see also Etzler, Eher, & Rettenberger, 2018).…”