Dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disaster for maize based on CERES-Maize model in Midwest of Jilin Province, China

Abstract

Waterlogging disasters are one of the most destructive meteorological disasters, which lead to crop yield reduction and cause a great threat to humanity and economic structure. This study presents the methodology and procedure for dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disasters for maize in Midwest of Jilin Province, China. We took the representative waterlogging disaster years of 1994, 2005, and 2010 as examples, the growth-stage waterlogging index was established to assess the waterlogging disaster hazard by using standard antecedent precipitation index and the relative humidity index. Maize growing data and maize planting area data were combined to assess the waterlogging disaster vulnerability of maize, in which the CERES-Maize model was used to simulate the growth of maize at a daily time step for each grid. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, the dynamic risk assessment model of waterlogging disaster for maize was built. In this study, the risk indexes were divided into five classes by using an optimal partition method. The grid GIS technology was used to map the spatial distribution of data and the grade of waterlogging disaster risk at a resolution of 5000 9 5000 m. The results show that areas with very low waterlogging disaster risk are mainly located in western and northeastern regions; in contrast, very high and high waterlogging disaster risk levels are mainly located in southern and central regions. Meanwhile, high risk areas at different growth stages gradually spread from the southwestern to the Midwestern and southeastern regions. This study could help the government when they make strategic decisions regarding food security in China, and the method of dynamic waterlogging risk disaster assessment could also be applied for other crops to control and prevent the occurrence and development of waterlogging disasters and reduce their adverse influence.

Impact of Climate on Food Security in Mainland China: A New Perspective Based on Characteristics of Major Agricultural Natural Disasters and Grain Loss

“…The least affected area was Liaoning (5.36 × 10 8 ha). Several previous studies have stated that droughts represent the most serious type of disaster in Northeast China (Du et al, 2015;Guo et al, 2016; [25,47,57]. Droughts displayed the highest impacts, followed by floods, hail, and low-temperature events, with typhoon activity having the smallest effect.…”

“…China is one of the countries most affected by natural disasters worldwide due to its vast territory, complex geographical environment, large fluctuations in climate, poor ecological stability, and high frequency and intensity of disasters (Cheng et al, 2014;Simelton, 2011;Zhang et al, 2014a;Hong et al, 2015;Guo et al, 2016) [21][22][23][24][25]. China's social and economic development are seriously affected by natural disasters.…”

“…Guan et al (2015) [46] found that there are five main disaster types in China: floods, droughts, hail, low-temperature events, and typhoon activity. Guo et al (2016) [25] reported that droughts and floods are two kinds of major climate disasters in China that contribute to more than 70% to the reduction of crop production. Based on historical documents and records, Liu et al (2012) [25] analyzed the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters (floods, droughts, hail, low-temperature events, and typhoon activity) that took place in the history of China.…”

“…Guo et al (2016) [25] reported that droughts and floods are two kinds of major climate disasters in China that contribute to more than 70% to the reduction of crop production. Based on historical documents and records, Liu et al (2012) [25] analyzed the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters (floods, droughts, hail, low-temperature events, and typhoon activity) that took place in the history of China. Simelton (2011) [22] used agricultural production (rice, wheat, maize, tubers, soybeans, and other grains) and natural disaster data (floods, and droughts) for 31 provinces in China for the period 1995-2008 to examine the self-sufficiency of China's domestic harvests.…”

Dynamic Evaluation and Regionalization of Maize Drought Vulnerability in the Midwest of Jilin Province

“…The research area is located in the Midwest of Jilin Province, with an area estimate of 798 × 104 hm 2 , which accounts for 44.23% of the total area of the Jilin Province [14,16]. The research area is located at the southwest end of the Songnen Plain in the Jilin Province and the east of the Horqin Grassland.…”