Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

Kalantarnia, Maryam; Khan, Faisal; Hawboldt, Kelly

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2009.04.006

Cited by 217 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…This will result in a false alarm. Wrong classifications can hardly be avoided, and the Bayesian decision theory addresses how to make a reasonable decision to minimize risks and losses [9][10][11].…”

Section: Analysis Of the Alarm Thresholdmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the recognition method of airport perimeter intrusion incidents based on laser detection technology

Wu¹,

Wang²,

Wang³

2017

Turk J Elec Eng & Comp Sci

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Currently, detection technology is very important for airport perimeter security. When the perimeter is invaded or destroyed, the perimeter security alarm system can promptly alert personnel. In this paper, based on analysis and comparison of several detection technologies commonly used in airport perimeter security and according to the characteristics of airport perimeters and laser detection, an airport perimeter security alarm system based on laser detection is proposed. It analyzes factors that affect the performance of a laser alarm system, divides intrusions into six categories, estimates the different alarm thresholds by testing, and judges the intrusion category according to the number of blocked laser beams and the duration of the block. In order to improve the rapid response and the robustness of the system, it uses a pattern recognition method based on radial basis function neural network technology to train and learn different samples of intrusion categories, uses the classifier to determine the cluster center of each sample node, and uses the weights of the center variance and the weights of hidden nodes to establish the alarm curve of each intrusion category. Meanwhile, when the feature value of an intrusion sample is distributed along the classification boundary of two categories, it uses Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of an invasive category to reduce the false alarm risk.According to sample testing, the above recognition method of airport intrusions based on laser detection technology effectively improves the intrusion detection probability.

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Section: Analysis Of the Alarm Thresholdmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the recognition method of airport perimeter intrusion incidents based on laser detection technology

Wu¹,

Wang²,

Wang³

2017

Turk J Elec Eng & Comp Sci

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“…In this section, we apply the developed methods to a tank safety system from literature (Kalantarnia et al 2009), as shown in Figure 2. The safety system is intended to protect the tank system from the initial event of overflow.…”

Section: System Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated framework for condition-informed probabilistic risk assessment

Xing

Zeng

Zio

2017

Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications

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Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is based on techniques like Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which are considered static, i.e., the failure probabilities of the safety barriers do not take into account the system evolution in time, e.g., due to various degradation mechanisms, like fatigue, wear, corrosion, etc. On the other hand, condition-monitoring data are available in practice and can be used, possibly even for real-time updating. In this paper, we develop an integrated framework for condition-informed risk analysis. A conventional event tree model is used, in which some safety barriers are subject to degradation mechanisms and their failure probabilities are treated as time-dependent. Particle Filtering (PF) is used to update the failure probabilities of the safety barriers in real-time, based on the collected condition-monitoring data. The updated failure probabilities are, then, used in the event tree model. The developed framework also allows predicting the scenario probabilities in the future. To do this, the failure probabilities are updated and predicted by PF and, then integrated in the event tree. The developed framework is applied for condition-informed risk assessment of a high-level alarm equipment from literature.

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“…Bayesian risk assessment in deterministic models was developed by Bonafede and Giudici (2007) and Kalantarnia et al (2009). Additionally, analyses using the Bayesian approach to probabilistic risk assessment and model simulations have been developed by Kalantarnia et al (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, analyses using the Bayesian approach to probabilistic risk assessment and model simulations have been developed by Kalantarnia et al (2009). Further, dynamic models in Bayesian risk assessment were developed by Whitney et al (2009) and Kalantarnia et al (2009). Specific evaluations of risks within the shipbuilding industry based on the application of Bayesian networks and use of questionnaires have been conducted by Lee et al (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Risk Assessment at Shipyard Industries

Basuki¹,

Manfaat²,

Nugroho³

et al. 2014

IJTech

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The shipbuilding industry is characterized by high-risk business activities; therefore, caution should be taken in its operational processes. From upstream to downstream, the shipbuilding industry depends on other industries. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted on the construction of new vessels using the Bayesian network approach; accordingly, the risk assessment was carried out using a probabilistic value at risk (VaR). The study was carried out by PT PAL Indonesia in association with the construction of a new tanker ship (building production codes M271 and M272). An analysis was conducted on three main components of new vessel construction-design components, material and production components, and subcomponents of the previous two components. From the study, we could conclude that the probability of delay for new vessel construction caused by design delay is 0.05; the probability of delay caused by material delay is 0.65; and the probability of delay caused by production delay is 0.3. For delays caused by design factors, a yard plan is the sub-component that contributes predominantly to delays (i.e., probability of 0.3). For delays caused by material factors, the sub-component with the greatest impact is hull and machinery outfitting, with a probability of 0.3. For delays caused by production factors, the sub-component with the biggest impact is hull construction, with a probability of 0.39. Thus, we could conclude that a project delay would occur if the material component and the hull construction sub-components were not handled properly.

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Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

Cited by 217 publications

References 18 publications

Study on the recognition method of airport perimeter intrusion incidents based on laser detection technology

Study on the recognition method of airport perimeter intrusion incidents based on laser detection technology

An integrated framework for condition-informed probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment at Shipyard Industries

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