Dynamic risk framework for cascading compounding climate-geological hazards: A perspective on coastal communities in subduction zones

Abstract

Integrated disaster resilience approaches are paramount for enhancing risk management of coastal communities in subduction zones under climate-geological risks. Cascading compounding climate-geological risks are dynamic, interact, and evolve with time. Also, classical convolution of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure does not allow easy implementation of causalities and dependencies that are critical in modelling impact chains due to cascading compounding multi-hazards. A new dynamic multi-hazard catastrophe modelling framework is proposed to fill important research gaps in the temporal evolution of climate-geological risks. Systemic modelling is a key tool where time-dependent and interacting risks are explicitly modelled, and multiple risk metrics can be computed. Furthermore, a possible new entropy-based approach for harmonising risk metrics is presented. Such a harmonisation can facilitate the decision-making process for disaster risk reduction. Finally, a way forward for future implementation of the proposed methodologies is discussed with a focus on the need for the development of new numerical and analytical tools.

Time-dependent probabilistic tsunami risk assessment: application to Tofino, British Columbia, Canada, subjected to Cascadia subduction earthquakes

“…In the long term, the megathrust earthquakes will cause subsidence of the ground in Tofino, which exacerbates the hydrometeorological impacts due to storms and coastal flooding. Future disaster risk impact assessments should address the issues related to cascading and compounding risks by considering hazard interaction and dynamic vulnerability in the multi-hazard context 38 , 39 .…”