Dynamic Rule Curves and Streamflow under Climate Change for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Honey-Bee Mating Optimization

Abstract

Climate change in the watershed above the reservoir has a direct impact on the quantity of streamflow that enters the reservoir and the management of water resources. Developing effective reservoir rule curves helps reduce the risk of future failures of water resource management. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of climate change on the volume of streamflow entering the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand during the years 2020–2049 with climate simulations from the CIMP5 model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. SWAT models were used to forecast future reservoir streamflow quantities. Moreover, suitable reservoir rule curves using the Honey-Bee Mating Optimization (HBMO) were developed and the effectiveness of the new rule curves was assessed. According to the research findings, the average yearly streamflow in the future apparently grew from 32% in the base years (2011–2019) and 65% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was discovered that the average monthly streamflow was higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Both of the projected situations have a form compatible with the present rule curves in the section of the new reservoir rule curves generated with the HBMO. Furthermore, the newly constructed rule curves may allow the reservoir to keep more water during the rainy season, thereby assuring that there will be adequate water during the following dry season. Additionally, during the dry season, the reservoir was able to release more water that would be able to reduce the water shortage, indicating that it was able to effectively reduce the amount of water shortage and average overflow under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 situations.

Estimation of Rubber Yield Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data

“…Remote sensing technology can effectively provide large spatial data [16][17][18][19][20]. Satellite imagery sources are often freely available; they cover a large geographic area and have high temporal resolution.…”

Extracting Optimal Operation Rule Curves of Multi-Reservoir System Using Atom Search Optimization, Genetic Programming and Wind Driven Optimization

“…The reservoir operation policies are defined based on the monthly rule curves of individual reservoirs and the principles of the water balance equation embedded within the reservoir simulation model. Meanwhile, the single reservoirs are operated under the standard operating policy [13,27] as expressed in Equation (1).…”

“…However, there are still difficulties because of the ongoing shifts in these temporal patterns and the quantity of water required. The reservoir operation rules must be revised and the water release policy must be adjusted in light of the water demand patterns to ensure the sustainable functioning of water released from a water system's dams and reservoirs [11,12], and under climate change [13].…”

Concern Condition for Applying Optimization Techniques with Reservoir Simulation Model for Searching Optimal Rule Curves

“…Several notable swarm algorithms have been employed in the field of optimization. These include particle swarm optimization (PSO) [33], cuckoo search algorithm (CS) [34,35], firefly algorithm (FA) [36], flower pollination algorithm (FPA) [37], gray wolf optimizer (GWO) [38], wind-driven optimization (WDO) [39,40], ant colony optimization (ACO) [41][42][43], honey-bee mating optimization (HBMO) [44][45][46], and Harris Hawks optimization (HHO) [47], among others. These swarm algorithms have shown effectiveness in various optimization problems.…”