Dynamic Rupture Models, Fault Interaction and Ground Motion Simulations for the Segmented Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

Li, Bo; Gabriel, Alice‐Agnes; Ulrich, Thomas; Abril, Claudia; Halldórsson, Benedikt

doi:10.1029/2022jb025886

JGR Solid Earth

2023

DOI: 10.1029/2022jb025886

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Dynamic Rupture Models, Fault Interaction and Ground Motion Simulations for the Segmented Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

Bo Li

Alice‐Agnes Gabriel

Thomas Ulrich

et al.

Abstract: Iceland, the most seismically active region in Northern Europe, is located on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the divergent margin of the North American and Eurasian Plates. The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) is located partially offshore in Northern Iceland and connects the on-land Northern Volcanic Zone with the offshore Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The TFZ consists of three sub-parallel fault systems (Einarsson, 1991): the Húsavík-Flatey fault zone (HFFZ), a ∼100 km-long segmented right-lateral strike-slip fault system located… Show more

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Cited by 6 publications

References 114 publications

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A simplified seismicity model of the bookshelf fault system of the Southwest Iceland transform zone

Bayat,

Kowsari,

Halldorsson

2024

Bull Earthquake Eng

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A simplified seismicity model of the bookshelf fault system of the Southwest Iceland transform zone

Bayat,

Kowsari,

Halldorsson

2024

Bull Earthquake Eng

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dynamic Rupture Modeling of Large Earthquake Scenarios at the Hellenic Arc Toward Physics‐Based Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Wirp,

Gabriel,

Ulrich

et al. 2024

JGR Solid Earth

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The Mediterranean Hellenic Arc subduction zone (HASZ) has generated several 8 earthquakes and tsunamis. Seismic‐probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment typically utilizes uniform or stochastic earthquake models, which may not represent dynamic rupture and tsunami generation complexity. We present an ensemble of ten 3D dynamic rupture earthquake scenarios for the HASZ, utilizing a realistic slab geometry. Our simplest models use uniform along‐arc pre‐stresses or a single circular initial stress asperity. We then introduce progressively more complex models varying initial shear stress along‐arc, multiple asperities based on scale‐dependent critical slip weakening distance, and a most complex model blending all aforementioned heterogeneities. Thereby, regional initial conditions are constrained without relying on detailed geodetic locking models. Varying epicentral locations in the simplest, homogeneous model leads to different rupture speeds and moment magnitudes. We observe dynamic fault slip penetrating the shallow slip‐strengthening region and affecting seafloor uplift. Off‐fault plastic deformation can double vertical seafloor uplift. A single‐asperity model generates a 8 scenario resembling the 1303 Crete earthquake. Using along‐strike varying initial stresses results in 8.0–8.5 dynamic rupture scenarios with diverse slip rates and uplift patterns. The model with the most heterogeneous initial conditions yields a 7.5 scenario. Dynamic rupture complexity in prestress and fracture energy tends to lower earthquake magnitude but enhances tsunamigenic displacements. Our results offer insights into the dynamics of potential large Hellenic Arc megathrust earthquakes and may inform future physics‐based joint seismic and tsunami hazard assessments.

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Earthquake Fault Rupture Modeling and Ground-Motion Simulations for the Southwest Iceland Transform Zone Using CyberShake

Rojas,

Monterrubio-Velasco,

Rodríguez

et al. 2024

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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CyberShake is a high-performance computing workflow for kinematic fault-rupture and earthquake ground-motion simulation developed by the Statewide California Earthquake Center to facilitate physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). CyberShake exploits seismic reciprocity for wave propagation by computing strain green tensors along fault planes, which in turn are convolved with rupture models to generate surface seismograms. Combined with a faultwide hypocentral variation of each simulated rupture, this procedure allows for generating ground-motion synthetics that account for realistic source variability. This study validates the platform’s kinematic modeling of physics-based seismic wave propagation simulations in Southwest Iceland as the first step toward migrating CyberShake from its original study region in California. Specifically, we have implemented CyberShake workflows to model 2103 fault ruptures and simulate the corresponding two horizontal components of ground-motion velocity on a 5 km grid of 625 stations in Southwest Iceland. A 500-yr-long earthquake rupture forecast consisting of 223 hypothetical finite-fault sources of Mw 5–7 was generated using a physics-based model of the bookshelf fault system of the Southwest Iceland transform zone. For each station, every reciprocal simulation uses 0–1 Hz Gaussian point sources polarized along two horizontal grid directions. Comparison of the results in the form of rotation-invariant synthetic pseudoacceleration spectral response values at 3, 4, and 5 s periods are in good agreement with the Icelandic strong motion data set and a suite of empirical Bayesian ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The vast majority of the physics-based simulations fall within one standard deviation of the mean GMPE predictions, previously estimated for the area. At large magnitudes for which no data exist in Iceland, the synthetic data set may play an important role in constraining GMPEs for future applications. Our results comprise the first step toward comprehensive and physics-based PSHA for Southwest Iceland.

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Dynamic Rupture Models, Fault Interaction and Ground Motion Simulations for the Segmented Húsavík‐Flatey Fault Zone, Northern Iceland

Cited by 6 publications

References 114 publications

A simplified seismicity model of the bookshelf fault system of the Southwest Iceland transform zone

A simplified seismicity model of the bookshelf fault system of the Southwest Iceland transform zone

Dynamic Rupture Modeling of Large Earthquake Scenarios at the Hellenic Arc Toward Physics‐Based Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Earthquake Fault Rupture Modeling and Ground-Motion Simulations for the Southwest Iceland Transform Zone Using CyberShake

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