Dynamic scenario deduction analysis for hazardous chemical accident based on CNN‐LSTM model with attention mechanism

Abstract

The evolution of hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs) is characterized by uncertainty and complexity. It is challenging for decision‐makers to expeditiously adapt emergency response plans in response to dynamically changing scenario states. This study proposes a data‐driven methodology for constructing accident scenarios and develops a novel hybrid deep learning model for scenario deduction analysis. This model aids in accurately predicting the evolution of HCAs, enabling emergency responders to prepare and implement targeted interventions proactively. First, a framework for constructing an accident scenario database is presented, based on the time‐sequential characteristics of accident progression. This framework employs a data‐driven approach to describe the evolution process of accident scenarios. Second, a deep learning model (CNN‐LSTM‐Attention) that integrates convolutional neural network (CNN), long short‐term memory (LSTM), and attention mechanism (AM) is developed for accident scenario deduction analysis. Finally, to illustrate practical application, a scenario database for HCAs is established. A major HCA case study is conducted to demonstrate the ability of this model to analyze various scenarios, thereby improving emergency decision‐making efficiency. Compared with algorithms such as CNN, LSTM, and CNN‐LSTM, the prediction accuracy of this method ranges from 86% to 93%, signifying an improvement of over 7%. This work provides a reliable framework for supporting decision‐making in emergency management.